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Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 02-19-2024, 11:15 PM:

So the NET Rankings is one of the main tools the committee uses when seeding teams. I think the NET Rankings are broken. Get a load of this.

Net Rankings going into Saturday’s games:

Auburn was #7 and UK was #21
Wisconsin was #22 and Iowa was #66

UK beats Auburn 70-59
Iowa beats Wisconsin 88-86

Net Rankings as of Sunday

Auburn stays at #7
UK drops to #22
Wisconsin moves UP to #21
Iowa drops to #67

So the two teams that win drop in the rankings. Why? UK dropped because South Carolina, Miami, UNC-Wilmington, and Texas A&M lost but do not get help from their own win, Tennessee win, Florida win, UNC win, and Kansas win.

It is stupid. Ok, I will say the not politically correct statement: this is what you get when a bunch of nerds are doing these power rankings. LOL.

[ 02-20-2024, 08:34 AM: Message edited by: Trey Ball ]

Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 02-20-2024, 09:37 AM:

Yeah. I understand in theory what they are trying to accomplish, but the actual formula seems a poor match to reality.

All ratings have an algorithm; all attempt to take the human subjectivity out and use "objective" truth to rate the teams. But, this is a game played by humans, with emotions, injuries, girlfriend problems, family isssues, stupid teens doing stupid things... you name it. As they say in the world of investing, "Past results do not predict future success".

So, we need a ranking. But the algorithm, the underlying score engine, is the problem. the Net ratings seem preposterous. Probably because of the weight they give to opponents instead of to the actual team performance. Should the success/failure of one-time opponents matter so much? I don't think so. Teams evolve over the course of a season. Some get better, some get worse. So, we may have beaten a team that was playing really good basketball at the time, but has slipped since. We UK fans know the "superbowl" effect, where an average team suddenly plays way above their station when UK is the opponent. Should WE be punished for that? No, but we are!

I used to follow Sagarin, which I thought was a little better. But, no rating system can capture the true potential of any team, given the dynamic nature of players, teams, etc. I just like my team's potential, and I really love it when they approach maximizing that potential. This team has the pieces to be a title contender, and we are watching in real-time as they are assembling the components into a working team.

Let's just hope we don't get punished any more for our opponents' failures.