TheCatsDomain.Com Message Boards: So what will happen to UNC?

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Posted by catmandoo (Member # 1284) on 10-23-2014, 11:04 AM:

I think the NCAA will come down hard on them and they should.

Infractions case remain notoriously hard to predict. We do know a couple of things about UNC though. First, UNC will not be considered a repeat violator based on this report. The paper course stop in 2011 and the Committee on Infractions report was issued March 12, 2012. That means all the possible major violations occurred before the start of the repeat violator period, which for UNC runs from March 12, 2012 through March 11, 2017. We also know that under the new enforcement structure, UNC will receive the lesser of the penalties between the old and new systems. In practice this normally means the old penalties.

Even in a best case scenario, it is hard to see UNC avoiding another major infractions case at this point. A combination of a relatively strict interpretation of the standards for an academic fraud violation, the difficulty of proving some of the worst findings in the report to the Committee on Infractions’ standards, and a different view than mine of the severity of the institutional control issues would limit the scope of the case. In that scenario, the biggest penalty UNC may face is a length probation, possibly with the odd scholarship reduction, vacation of records, or recruiting restriction thrown in.

In a worst case scenario, the enforcement staff is able to prove a long and continuous series of academic fraud violations and treats the institutional control issues as serious as I have. The best recent precedent in that situation would be the Florida State case from 2009. That case is one of the few involving numerous academic fraud violations spread over a number of sports without other violations like extra benefits or recruiting inducements. In that case, Florida State vacated records and received relatively small scholarship reductions across a number of sports.

In a worst case scenario, UNC could be guilty of far more academic fraud than Florida State and be found to lack institutional control while FSU was only charged with failure to monitor. Increased penalties might mean significant scholarships reductions in some sports (5-10 in football, 3 in basketball) and the possibility of a postseason ban, potentially multiple years in some sports.

Or it could be something in between. In any case, expect lengthy show-cause orders for the involved individuals. The other guarantee is that any penalties beyond probation will be controversial in this case, despite the public clamor for an NCAA investigation. Not only will the penalties punish innocent athletes and coaches like many NCAA sanctions do, but in this case even the athletes involved were victims.

But to reiterate, I do not believe this is a case where the NCAA can say that the people involved in the wrongdoing are gone, so the institution can avoid serious consequences. If the NCAA approaches this case as one where athletics staff members managed to gain any level of control over an academic department, it must send a message that it recognizes how the UNC scandal cuts to the heart of college athletics and that it will not be tolerated now or in the future.

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Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 10-23-2014, 11:48 AM:

Hope I'm wrong but I expect little more that a slap on the hand.

I honestly believe that if the same offences were brought against UK and Coach Cal it would be the death penalty. Believe it or not, I wouldn't argue one bit with that if it were us.