TheCatsDomain.Com Message Boards: Numbers say this is a toss up game..

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Posted by catmandoo (Member # 1284) on 02-01-2014, 10:21 AM:

It should be a very good game with two good teams needing the win and the one that wants it more will be the victor.

MISSOURI will put their 16-4; 4-3 SEC record on the line when the Cats make their first trip into the Tiger Den in Columbia for the first time in a SEC contest. Last year, when Missouri appeared in Rupp for its first SEC game there, a desperate and wounded UK team managed to send these Tigers home with a loss in overtime. No one should doubt that Missouri marked February 1 on their sports calendar way back in August as THE GAME for this season at the MIZZOU ARENA.

White Out! Black Out! Tiger Stripe Out! Good weather or bad! Regardless of all other circumstances of world or local events, the appearance of Kentucky at their place on February 1 would be the biggest event of the season.

The Tigers completed their non-conference season 12-1, losing only to #82 Illinois by 1 point at a neutral venue. Missouri claims wins over #18 UCLA by 9 and at #85 NC State by 4. Once the SEC started however, the Tigers have stumbled to a 4-3 record. Road losses at Vanderbilt by 3 (A rare UK road win this season) and at LSU on January 21 by 6. Missouri has claimed conference wins at Auburn and at Arkansas by 4 (A UK loss this season) and home wins over Alabama by 21 and South Carolina by 8. The mystery game for this Missouri team has been it overtime loss at home to #129 Georgia in their conference opener. MISSOURI’s schedule strength has been 0.5438 (117th).

MISSOURI has averaged 67 to 68 possessions per game, scoring 74.8 ppg (1.111 ppp) and allowing 66.6 ppg (0.974 ppp). MISSOURI has turned the ball over on 18.8% of its possessions while forcing turnovers on 16.2% of opponent possessions. On the Boards, MISSOURI has secured an offensive rebounding rate of 36.7% about 6% above the 31% NCAA average, and a defensive rebounding rate of 70.3%, about 1% above the NCAA average.

In contrast, the Cats have averaged about 70 possessions per game, producing 79.8 ppg (1.139 ppp) and allowing 66.6 ppg (0.956 ppp). The Cats have committed turnovers on 18.1% of its possessions and forced turnovers on 16.5% of opponent possessions. On the Boards, the Cats’ rebounding rates have been 43.6% and 68.7% on the offensive and defensive ends against a schedule strength of .6245 (#41).

Based on this distribution, the analysis tips in favor of MISSOURI by 2 points, 73-71 in a game played at a pace of 69 possessions for the Cats and 69 possessions for MISSOURI. Pomeroy figures the Game in Kentucky’s favor by 2 points, 75-73 at a pace of 67 possessions.

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Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 02-01-2014, 11:16 AM:

I ain't saying this is a "must" win, but it's a much-needed win. I just wonder how our team would react mentally with two straight SEC losses. I just hope it doesn't come down to that.

Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 02-01-2014, 11:19 AM:

quote:
The attendance of 12,033 was the largest of the season at Mizzou Arena, which holds just over 15,000.

The line above is talking about Missouri's last home game against SC. We all know that there will probably be 15,000+ at today's game.

Posted by catmandoo (Member # 1284) on 02-01-2014, 11:28 AM:

I wouldn't doubt if 5,000 of those fans will be Cat fans. [Smile]

Posted by Old Norm (Member # 1482) on 02-01-2014, 12:16 PM:

All the betting services I found has UK as a 2 point favorite. I wouldn't put a lot of money on them covering the spread though.