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Author
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Topic: Reasons why UK should beat Missouri
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catmandoo
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Member # 1284
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posted 10-06-2017 07:11 PM
Periodically I'll share my thoughts on where things stand for Kentucky football. With the Cats having a golden opportunity to move to 5-1 (2-1) overall, Kentucky's a solid favorite against Missouri.
Here's why.
Kentucky's opponent on Saturday is not an impressive team. Their personnel is better than it has shown through the first four games of the season, but you don't lose to Purdue at home 35-3 if you're decent, nor do you lose in the fashion Missouri did to South Carolina and Auburn if you have a pulse. The bye week is a rallying point, but Missouri has been a mentally fragile team in addition to the struggles they've had across most position groups. If you're one who's losing sleep for fear of a letdown, rest easy. Kentucky should win this game with relative ease. And, hey, if they don't, then they aren't as good as almost everybody thinks they are.
Field position numbers heavily favor Kentucky.
By this point it's not a secret and we outlined in this week in the 3-2-1. Kentucky is a field position, ball security team. Teams that win the field position battle win three-fourths of games played, and Kentucky is one of the nation's best teams in the field position category.
Turn the page to Missouri's statistical profile and the Tigers rank in the 90's in average field position numbers for offense and defense. Unless Kentucky gives up an inordinate number of explosive plays and doesn't create them itself, that's a significant advantage.
The turnover numbers are even more striking.
Kentucky is one of the nation's best teams in turnover margin through five games. They're +7 on the year in what has been quite a turnaround from recent history.
Conversely, Missouri is -9 in turnovers.
Turnovers can be tricky, unpredictable things, especially through five games. But they do speak to some realities: Athleticism and play makers on defense, ball security emphasis, risk factors, etc.
Link
[ 10-06-2017, 07:15 PM: Message edited by: catmandoo ]
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http://www.ukfightsong.com/
Posts: 186359 | From: st. augustine florida 32092 | Registered: Mar 2001
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boomdaddy
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Member # 2644
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posted 10-07-2017 07:48 AM
Besides turnovers, Kentucky needs to get solid production from it O line and get the running game going.
The OC and the QB need to get reintroduced to their future NFL TE. It seems they forgot who he was, last game. They need a few big plays. Dink and dunk is okay, but big plays take the pressure off the offense and flip field position, even if you dont score.
The D, be prepared and don't look like its your first game. Yes, the O blew it at the ed of the game against the Gators with the 3 and outs and the penalty that moved them out of FG range. But, the D gave up two TDs where they left a man wide open on one side of the field, pulling defeat right out of the jaws of victory. The D was to blame for the loss and more so because they looked like they didn't know what the hell they were doing, than getting beat by a better team.
Posts: 8791 | From: paris, ky | Registered: Mar 2006
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