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Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-03-2020, 11:01 AM:
 
I don't know about you guys but this thing has me worried. I just read this morning about 2 new cases in Georgia, that's right next door to me...all the way from China.

It is spreading like wildfire in highly developed countries (Japan, S. Korea, etc.) that have access to all modern medicine has to offer and still can't seem to slow it down.

I already have severe breathing problems from my days in the mines so I sure as hell don't need this. [Frown]

Thoughts?
 
Posted by rlt4uk (Member # 3194) on 03-03-2020, 01:00 PM:
 
I'm not demeaning the seriousness of it, but the flu has killed more people than the coronavirus, the last couple of months.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-03-2020, 01:24 PM:
 
rlt:

quote:
I'm not demeaning the seriousness of it, but the flu has killed more people than the coronavirus, the last couple of months.
True. This sucker is just really getting cranked up though, especially in the US. Not panicking, but damn sure plenty concerned.
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-03-2020, 03:19 PM:
 
The fatality rate is considerably higher than for most influenza strains, which are typically around a tenth of a percent. For this one, it seems to be closer to 2% -- 20 times higher than normal.

My company just cancelled an upcoming conference where about 8,000 people from around the world meet to learn about our software. I am sure that many people will be upset about the fees to cancel flights and such, and my company will lose a TON of money from this, but it was the right thing to do.
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-03-2020, 06:00 PM:
 
MM … just make sure you aren't drinking Corona beer !!! I heard that is where it is coming from (really... some idiot hear told a policeman he was worried about getting it because he drank Corona beer) !!! lol

MEL
 
Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 03-03-2020, 06:39 PM:
 
I'm not as worried now that I've heard some things about it. Not trying top down play it, but it's basically just another strain of a virus that we have had in the US for years. My hope is that they figure out a way to combat it like they have all the others. I'm sure the elderly and people with underlying medical conditions are at a higher risk though. But I will take precautions, do doubt about it.

Plus, if Bloomberg wins the presidency he'll be able to take care of it, at least according to the radio commercials I've been hearing 24/7.
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-04-2020, 12:11 AM:
 
PC … of course he will, it will be over and done with by the time he became president … lol
Everyone has the answer when they are the one that isn't making the decisions !!! I am sure Bernie can fix everything also by taking our money to fix it like everything else he wants to do !!! [Frown]

MEL
 
Posted by CatFanInYankeeville (Member # 2025) on 03-06-2020, 11:05 AM:
 
I'm not sure about this virus, fellas. Yes, the "flu" is much more prevalent, and kills a lot more folks, but this virus strain is relatively unknown, and it's so early in the process we just don't have a lot of solid info on it. We know it's able to be passed from human to human, and folks who have had it and recovered still show symptoms. It's not like most virus attacks, where once you get it, your body creates antibodies resulting in an immunity. This strain is particularly harmful, of course, to the young/old, or anyone with compromised immune systems. The mortality rate I've seen range from 2-4% total, with much higher rates in the sick or elderly. I'm not prepared to say it's a pandemic, but it's interesting to see cities like Seattle just buy a hotel and use it to quarantine as many people as they can fit in there. I've told my dad (77) to stay home and just take care of the farm for a while. He won't listen, but that's my advice!
 
Posted by GA Cat (Member # 642) on 03-06-2020, 12:00 PM:
 
quote:
Originally posted by MountainMafia:
I don't know about you guys but this thing has me worried. I just read this morning about 2 new cases in Georgia, that's right next door to me...all the way from China.

It is spreading like wildfire in highly developed countries (Japan, S. Korea, etc.) that have access to all modern medicine has to offer and still can't seem to slow it down.

I already have severe breathing problems from my days in the mines so I sure as hell don't need this. [Frown]

Thoughts?

This morning, we are being told that there may be a third case in Rome, GA. That is about 40 miles north of me.
 
Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 03-06-2020, 12:29 PM:
 
I just heard there is now a confirmed case in Indiana.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-06-2020, 04:54 PM:
 
Last count I heard was 21 states infected...shortage of testing kits or this number would be much higher...Nobody knows really.
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-06-2020, 08:52 PM:
 
It will quickly reach all states, just as the flu does every year. And, because it is transmitted primarily by body fluids, simple precautions like thoroughly washing your hands (at least 20 seconds, being careful to get under the nails and between the fingers) are effective at reducing the risk of transmission.

But, it is far more lethal than the flu. Only the 1918 "Spanish Flu" was more lethal than this one, but that was a true killer that felled millions around the world. Don't trifle with this, but at the same time, don't let fear cripple you.

I am ready to believe the suspicions that this one emerged from a Chinese bio-warfare lab. It isn't a true killer virus, but it sure is different from the cold or flu viruses. After all is said and done, I think the Chinese are going to have to answer to this.
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-07-2020, 04:24 PM:
 
Update: This virus is actually MORE lethal than the 1918 flu! And it is more contagious.

I think things are going to get worse over the next few months. Take good precautions, and WASH YOUR HANDS much longer, and more frequently, than you think you need to.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-08-2020, 11:38 AM:
 
Tip:
quote:
Update: This virus is actually MORE lethal than the 1918 flu! And it is more contagious.
The scary thing is you don't have to come in contact with an infected person...just going where an infected has been and touching any object they were in contact with is enough.

Like Tip said: WASH YOUR HANDS! OFTEN AND THOROUGHLY!

[ 03-08-2020, 11:40 AM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 
Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 03-09-2020, 11:57 AM:
 
quote:
Originally posted by PaulCat:
I just heard there is now a confirmed case in Indiana.

My niece is doing her final nursing rotation at Community North Hospital where the diagnosis was confirmed.

[ 03-09-2020, 10:32 PM: Message edited by: Trey Ball ]
 
Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 03-09-2020, 12:30 PM:
 
I cannot confirm this, but my wife said a guy at her work is working from home because his brother-in-law is one of the confirmed Ky. cases and the guy was with him recently. This thing is spreading like wildfire.
 
Posted by CatFanInYankeeville (Member # 2025) on 03-09-2020, 03:52 PM:
 
It's definitely going to get worse before it gets better, fellas. Especially now that there are more test kits being utilized, we'll definitely have more 'confirmed cases' than before. If I were retired, I'd stay home as much as I could, at least for the next month or so.
 
Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 03-09-2020, 10:29 PM:
 
It's 3 miles from my house now. We have a confirmed case here in Kendallville, IN. They are in isolation at the local hospital.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-09-2020, 11:26 PM:
 
That’s way too close for me. This stuff can not only show up in your hometown tomorrow.....it can show up at your house.
 
Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 03-11-2020, 08:57 PM:
 
Friday I’ll be 74, I’m diabetic, had one heart attack and other heart problems along with a variety of old man ailments. In other words, the effects of this virus would be potentially disastrous for this old fellow.

However, I believe throwing all sorts of money to various groups and individuals is far worse for our country in the long run than letting this disease run it’s course, within reason. Spend what’s necessary for control/cure but don’t give a nickel for bailouts of any kind. It seems like all that our government wants to do is increase the national debt by giving hand outs. Didn’t work in the past and I believe it’s a mistake now.

They say the best defense against this virus is to wash your hands regularly. If this is true I’ll be fine. I’ve washed my hands twice a week since I was a kid.

[ 03-11-2020, 08:59 PM: Message edited by: handycat ]
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-11-2020, 10:18 PM:
 
Great post Handy !!!

MEL
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-11-2020, 10:35 PM:
 
Like you, hc, I'm on the north side of 70 and also have diabetes along with chronic bronchitis and a few other issues I could do without.

So, for me, whatever action the gov't takes to combat this virus I'm for.

I don't look at it as a bailout. This is not about Wall Street greed, bad economic policy, or partisan politics...this is literally life or death for untold thousands of Americans...Covid-19 is not the flu...it is many times more lethal.

Washing your hands is always a good idea-it helps, but that's all...it won't stop it alone.

We have no clue how widespread it is because we are so far behind on testing. When testing ramps up the numbers are going to skyrocket.

The NBA just suspended the rest of the season until further notice. This is just the beginning...look for others to follow suit.

It's just getting started guys...the worst is yet to come.

[ 03-12-2020, 02:10 PM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-12-2020, 01:53 PM:
 
From a member of the Stanford Hospital board:

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS

1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold

2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.

3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees Celsius (79-80 degrees Farenheit). It hates the Sun.

4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.

5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.

6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.

7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.

8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.

9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.

10. Can't emphasis enough - drink plenty of water!

THE SYMPTOMS

1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days

2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.

3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.

4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.

Serious excellent advice by Japanese doctors treating COVID-19 cases:
Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat are moist, never dry. Take a few sips of water every 15 minutes at least. Why? Even if the virus gets into your mouth, drinking water or other liquids will wash them down through your throat and into the stomach. Once there, your stomach acid will kill all the virus. If you don't drink enough water more regularly, the virus can enter your windpipe and into the lungs. That's very dangerous. Please send and share this with family and friends. Take care everyone and may the world recover from this Coronavirus soon.

A Simple Self-Test
The new Coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days. How can one know if he/she is infected? By the time they have fever and/or cough and go to the hospital, the lung is usually 50% Fibrosis and it's too late (Fibrosis is not reversible). Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning. Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds. If you complete it successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stiffness or tightness, etc., it proves there is no Fibrosis in the lungs, basically indicates no infection. In critical times, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air.
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-12-2020, 04:46 PM:
 
Thank you Tip !!!

MEL
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-12-2020, 11:14 PM:
 
MY biggest question about canceling everything under the sun is … do the powers that be think people are gonna stay in their houses and not go out ??? People are still gonna go shopping, to the movies, out to eat etc. I hate when the media pushes stuff down our throats and we are expected to believe what they say !!! Follow what Tip posted and just be smart and everything will come out in the wash !!!

MEL
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-12-2020, 11:33 PM:
 
MEL:
quote:
I hate when the media pushes stuff down our throats and we are expected to believe what they say !!!
You serious?
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-13-2020, 12:19 AM:
 
Yes I am ... did you hear on main stream video how many have died in Washington State ??? 31 and 23 are from the same nursing home but the media I have heard doesn't mention that … just that there are X number of deaths. If 23 of 31 in that state are in one nursing home don't you think we should know the facts not just the numbers ??? The media is spreading panic that doesn't need to be spread. Just be smart and wash your hands and drink lots of water and not be scared to go about your normal life. If you are elderly or have respiratory problems then don't go out in public if that makes you feel safer, but if you are healthy and have a good immune system then just be smart and go on with your life.
In my opinion the media is spreading panic and people are swallowing it … toilet paper shelfs are empty (WHY ???)…
People are going to go out in public … remember it is an election year and things get all out of sorts during this time (and before you say anything about which group I will say it comes from both parties and whoever it helps more is more into it) again my opinion.

MEL
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-13-2020, 01:21 AM:
 
Airlines, Hotels, Schools, conventions, international travel bans, sporting events, campaign rallies, etc, etc, etc...shutting down...unprecedented!

Do you think this is not happening?....that this is just media hysteria? When does UNC play next in the ACC tourney?

These are $BILLION decisions! They were not made easily, and certainly not without the facts.

America is facing a public health crisis that we are woefully unprepared for....and we need to get that fixed...quick!
 
Posted by Old Norm (Member # 1482) on 03-13-2020, 12:38 PM:
 
Mr. Trump may have to wave his magic wand again!
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-13-2020, 01:36 PM:
 
Norm:
quote:
Mr. Trump may have to wave his magic wand again!

Why hasn't he already?
 
Posted by Jarcat (Member # 95) on 03-13-2020, 02:17 PM:
 
quote:
Mr. Trump may have to wave his magic wand again!
Why hasn't he already?

How do you know he hasn't? if you depend on the Lame Stream Media to report anything positive about Mr. Trump you'll never hear it.
 
Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 03-13-2020, 02:40 PM:
 
Anybody have a recipe to make toilet paper out of cauliflower? No TP left in my town. Raw cauliflower does not seem to work well. People are starting to avoid me.

[ 03-13-2020, 02:45 PM: Message edited by: handycat ]
 
Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 03-13-2020, 03:12 PM:
 
I always said the govt should replace the cigarette and alcohol tax with a toilet paper tax. That way you hit everyone, not just smokers and drinkers.

On second thought, a lot of people would stop wiping their @sses. We better stick with the original plan.

[ 03-13-2020, 03:14 PM: Message edited by: PaulCat ]
 
Posted by clydeh (Member # 7) on 03-13-2020, 03:34 PM:
 
My church (Highway 157 Church of Christ) has the Lord's Supper each Sunday. There are plans about how to keep the bread and grape juice from being contaminated by any member who might have the virus and not know it.
This concern about this virus is so much more than the flu.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-13-2020, 03:55 PM:
 
jarcat:
quote:
Mr. Trump may have to wave his magic wand again!
Why hasn't he already?

How do you know he hasn't?

No evidence!

[ 03-13-2020, 03:59 PM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 
Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 03-14-2020, 09:01 AM:
 
Went to Walmart this morning very early to pick up just a few items. Thought I was early enough to beat the crowds. WRONG! No eggs, bread, etc. Self check out lanes were the only ones open. They were backed up 6 deep with folks that had rounded over shopping carts. Lady in my line was coughing and blowing. She received too many dirty looks to count. I also saw at least two people who looked like they have started to turn.

I’ve read a ton on novels on the apocalypse and am an avid fan of the walking dead so I consider myself an expert on Zombie outbreaks. Remember, you have to shoot those who have turned in the head. All other points is simply a waste of ammo.

The end is near.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-14-2020, 09:39 AM:
 
hc:
quote:
Lady in my line was coughing and blowing.
I've never really had a problem with ladies blowing, but I don't think I would stand in line for it though. [Wink]
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-14-2020, 11:16 AM:
 
quote:
Originally posted by MountainMafia:
hc:
quote:
Lady in my line was coughing and blowing.
I've never really had a problem with ladies blowing, but I don't think I would stand in line for it though. [Wink]
Now that's funny MM !!!

MEL
 
Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 03-14-2020, 11:56 AM:
 
Mel & M&M, this is a serious topic and you both need to stop it. You guys are lucky I’m not a moderator as there would be serious consequences for this.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-14-2020, 01:16 PM:
 
I am serious, hc. I wouldn't stand in line, but I would get up early enough next morning that I wouldn't have to. [Smile]
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-14-2020, 01:35 PM:
 
Sorry HC ... just can't help myself. There is so much panic out there I gotta have some relief when I can.
HC I don't care what Cal says you be a pretty cool guy !!!

MEL
 
Posted by Old Norm (Member # 1482) on 03-14-2020, 01:42 PM:
 
I worked our Knights of Columbus Lenten fish fry late yesterday afternoon. We had a meeting beforehand and decided to cancel the rest of the fish fries after that one. When we finished, I went to Walmart for a few things before going home. I was astounded! ALL the checkout lanes were open. That was a first for me. The shelves looked like a bunch of 5 year olds has wrecked them. I did manage to find most of what we wanted. Millie did want some pinto beans, but all that was on the shelves where they were normally displayed, was one, solitary package of black-eyed peas! I cannot stand them, so I left them for some other unfortunate soul.
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-14-2020, 02:42 PM:
 
Norm … way too much misinformation out there and people are panicking … sure there are serious problems but not to the degree some people are taking it IMHO (grabbing all the toilet paper and hand sanitizer you can get). I just read where 2 brothers went out and bought all the hand sanitizer they could get {over 20,000 bottles}for around $3-4 a bottle, they then went on Amazon and were selling them anywhere from $20 to $125 a bottle till Amazon stepped in and stopped that kind of price gouging. They are now stuck with over 17,000 bottles and I hope they have to drink them !!! It is a dangerous problem but some common sense will help people prevail. If you have health problems like respiratory, low immunities etc … by all means stay in as much as you feel you need to. But from what I heard from a surgeon I talked to if you are healthy and just take precautions you will be fine. One of the biggest problems he said is there are not enough respirators available if lots of people need them (but it shouldn't be a problem unless people are just not taking precautions pertaining to their health needs and problems). Just my 2 cents (well and the surgeon's I talked to).
Stay safe everyone and take care of yourselves according to your needs.

MEL
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-14-2020, 02:47 PM:
 
We ain't seen nuth'n yet!

You guys are probably tired of hearing me say that. But, from the heart, I believe this virus can change our way of life for the foreseeable future if we don't get a handle on it. Like...NOW!

I'm not interested in some political, back-and-forth blame game. Right now, I don't give damn who's at fault, if anybody at all...get the patient to the hospital before he dies and then worry about who shot him.

We are so far behind on testing and surveillance it's staggering.

South Korea corralled the virus buy testing 15k people a day (China tested 100k per day)...we barely test 100 a week.

By some estimates over a million Americans are already infected...we just can't identify them until they become ill (or play for an NBA team) and, by that time, they have already infected who knows how many?

I know this link is worst case...but this is what could happen if we don't go after this thing with everything we got...it'll take it.

WORST CASE
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-14-2020, 04:11 PM:
 
Hey, MM, that article assumes NO measures are taken to limit the spread of the virus. But strong measures ARE being taken. Travel limitations, event cancellations, "social distance", wide dissemination of protective habits... with more to come.

Aggressive testing is good, but the best way to prevent the spread is to do what Americans do best -- stay indoors, be antisocial, and hunker down on the computer. [Smile]

I suggest that all here do the same.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-14-2020, 04:56 PM:
 
Tip:
quote:
Aggressive testing is good, but the best way to prevent the spread is to do what Americans do best -- stay indoors, be antisocial, and hunker down on the computer.
Hell, I been "social distancing" before I knew what it was...we used to call it minding your own business....So, that part won't bother me none.
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-14-2020, 05:54 PM:
 
Here is how the Italians deal with "social distance"... in the heart of a massive outbreak, they SING!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDRiINXik00&feature=youtu.be
 
Posted by Old Norm (Member # 1482) on 03-14-2020, 06:02 PM:
 
If I were to sing, I suspect that would drive everyone far away from me!
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-14-2020, 07:33 PM:
 
I am often asked to sing solo... so low that nobody can hear me.

And when I do sing, I prefer to sing tenor... ten or twelve miles away from the nearest human.

[Smile]
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-14-2020, 08:00 PM:
 
You two better straighten up, hc has already warned Mel! [Smile]
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-15-2020, 04:07 PM:
 
Sorry HC but I am all in now …

Some people aren't shaking hands because of the Coronavirus. I am not shaking hands because everyone is out of toilet paper !!! lol

Damn this virus must be wrecking India like a m***** f***** … I haven't gotten a call about my extended warranty in a good minute !!! lol

MEL
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-15-2020, 04:17 PM:
 
MEL:
quote:
Some people aren't shaking hands because of the Coronavirus. I am not shaking hands because everyone is out of toilet paper !!! lol
Love it! [Big Grin]
 
Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 03-15-2020, 04:43 PM:
 
I find it odd that if this virus started in China in December, and possibly as early as November, that it has taken this long to get to the US. I have a friend who had to go to the emergency room with flu-like symptoms back in January. Also in January, I got sick for a couple of days like I had never been before, and it came with a cough that took me weeks to get over. Is it possible that COVID-19 has been here for a while, and that's what me and my friend had? Who knows.
 
Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 03-15-2020, 06:14 PM:
 
quote:
Originally posted by PaulCat:
I find it odd that if this virus started in China in December, and possibly as early as November, that it has taken this long to get to the US. I have a friend who had to go to the emergency room with flu-like symptoms back in January. Also in January, I got sick for a couple of days like I had never been before, and it came with a cough that took me weeks to get over. Is it possible that COVID-19 has been here for a while, and that's what me and my friend had? Who knows.

PC,

My wife and I have thought the same thing. She was had a strange sickness in late January and early February.
 
Posted by Old Norm (Member # 1482) on 03-15-2020, 06:25 PM:
 
One of my granddaughters was sick and had to miss work last month. She had pretty much all the symptoms. Her kids, 4 and 5 were sick as well, but not as severely as she was. Could be. Millie and I have self isolated. Didn't even go to Mass, which is a big no-no for Catholics. I went over before Mass and talked with the priest about it. He was fine with it. We'll probably skip two or three more Sundays, and then go back if things have settled down.
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-15-2020, 08:59 PM:
 
I am not generally prone to conspiracy theories, but the characteristics of this disease are those that make it a perfect bioweapon:

(1) The long incubation period allows those infected to spread the virus to the maximum number of others before symptoms show.

(2) Permanent lung damage (fibrosis) often occurs before symptons appear.

(3) It is more contagious than any flu or cold virus (which are from the same family of viruses) -- on average, a carrier infects over 3 people. Normal flu and cold viruses have an infection rate of 1.8 or less.

(4) The fact that it is a "novel" (new) virus also indicates something man-made. Most viruses are mutations from other strains; this one is brand new.

Methinks the Chinese have some 'splainin to do.
 
Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 03-15-2020, 09:54 PM:
 
Tip, I wouldn't doubt your theory, but i did see a television interview with some "scientist" guy who said this virus has no characteristics of a man-made virus.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-16-2020, 06:48 AM:
 
PC:
quote:
Is it possible that COVID-19 has been here for a while,
Not only possible, but likely.

Norm:
quote:
Millie and I have self isolated.
Good move, Norm...very dangerous times right now.

Tip:
quote:
Methinks the Chinese have some 'splainin to do.
Me wouldn't doubt it one bit.

PC:
quote:
i did see a television interview with some "scientist" guy who said this virus has no characteristics of a man-made virus.
Like Tip said, this thing is brand new...we just don't know yet.
 
Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 03-16-2020, 07:55 AM:
 
My daughter is an RN and she tells us we need to self isolate for the near future. Our grandchildren have volunteered to go to the store for us. We our both sick with what I’m reasonably sure is nothing more than the common cold. VA clinic called and canceled a routine visit. Routine dentist appointment has been postponed. Illinois has shut down bars and restaurants so my daily coffee routine is gone.

This thing is going to be a train wreck for the economy no matter what we as individuals do or what measures the government takes.

I’m bored. I may post more of my nonsense than normal. When you see “handycat” on here you may want to to keep scrolling. To do other wise may result in severe irritability. It’s going to be a long spring.

[ 03-16-2020, 08:15 AM: Message edited by: handycat ]
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-16-2020, 09:18 AM:
 
hc:
quote:
This thing is going to be a train wreck for the economy no matter what we as individuals do or what measures the government takes.
Without consumers there is no economy. Ironically, by doing what we're supposed to do...stay home as much as possible...we are, at the same time, withdrawing from the economy.
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-16-2020, 12:35 PM:
 
There is still Amazon and Grubhub!
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-16-2020, 01:11 PM:
 
Delivery is the only way to go right now...no guarantees but a lot safer.

I don't even trust my mail!

[ 03-16-2020, 01:15 PM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-16-2020, 04:18 PM:
 
Take it for what is worth (and who knows now days) but my daughter who works for a law firm in Phoenix says a lawyer in their firm knows someone that is in the know and said not to panic but be prepared for a nationwide shut down within 48 hours. I filled up with gas and have enough food for a month for myself already so I am good.

Good luck to everyone out there … even you Handy !!! [Smile]

MEL

MEL
 
Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 03-16-2020, 04:31 PM:
 
Can't make money with the market at an all-time high. I'm sure there are many rich people who want the market to drop. As they say, buy low.
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-16-2020, 06:24 PM:
 
Mel,

What do you mean by 'nationwide shut-down'? I need to get my daughter home from San Diego!

Paul,

All time high? Yikes! The market has been clobbered. I can kiss my dream of retiring in a few years goodbye.
 
Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 03-16-2020, 06:47 PM:
 
Tip, i'm talking about where the market was before this meltdown. I'm sure the market will eventually bounce back. I've got seven years before I have to worry about it. What sucks is that back in December I had an email all typed up to my financial guy to move my IRA out of the market and "on the shelf". I decided to wait for my 401K to start with my new job before sending it. Turns out I waited too long. The email is still in my draft folder. [Frown]

[ 03-16-2020, 06:47 PM: Message edited by: PaulCat ]
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-16-2020, 07:20 PM:
 
Tip,
I don't know about a nationwide shut down "within 48 hours", but I think it will happen soon.

Dr. Fauci, the dude in charge and in the know, says he is open to a 14-day nationwide shutdown.

Stricter and stricter travel and crowd bans are being declared every day all over the country...at this pace a nationwide shutdown is inevitable.

It's going to get much worse before it gets better.
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-16-2020, 07:24 PM:
 
Tip I am just repeating what the lawyer told my daughter. If there is a shut down then most business will shut down expect essential ones like pharmacies, grocery stores, gas stations … etc. And maybe even some of those. I would think airlines would be one of the first to shut down since they are germ tubes already (but that is just a guess).

MEL
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-16-2020, 08:59 PM:
 
If that happens, the economic fallout will be catastrophic. Bankruptcies will abound, even among large, solid companies.

The stock market has never plummeted this far, this fast, EVER. Not 1929, not 1987, not 2008. But the market is forward-looking, and is pricing in the probability of economic disaster looming on the horizon.

I could see airlines going bust, hotel chains going under, resorts and casinos suffering, even the mighty Disney will be hit hard (park attendance will be almost zero, and ESPN has no sports to broadcast).

One bright spot: Amazon is hiring 100,000 delivery and warehouse positions, and has given a temporary raise of $2 per hour to those jobs. They are encouraging those who are out of work because of all the bans and closures to apply. They are struggling to keep up with a massive surge in orders because everybody is sequestered.

[ 03-16-2020, 08:59 PM: Message edited by: Tiptree ]
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-16-2020, 10:18 PM:
 
Tip:
quote:

I could see airlines going bust,

Trump said today he was going to bail out the airlines because it "wasn't their fault".
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-16-2020, 10:48 PM:
 
Yeah, but where do you stop? For example, restaurants by the tens of thousands will close. We can't print enough money to cover the businesses that will suffer from this.
 
Posted by m hamilton (Member # 127) on 03-17-2020, 04:39 AM:
 
IF we go into a full blown SHUTDOWN, ol' Mark will be sequestered at his work. There is already a process in the works of forcing people to stay to make sure the lights stay on!
 
Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 03-17-2020, 06:50 AM:
 
quote:
Yeah, but where do you stop? For example, restaurants by the tens of thousands will close. We can't print enough money to cover the businesses that will suffer from this.

My thoughts as well. I think we should personally do everything to help small businesses such as drive up’s curb serviced etc. Generally speaking i’m against government bail outs.

On a side note, I watched the President’s news conference yesterday. I was encouraged. Not about the pandemic but his demeanor. He acted somewhat presidential and refrained from some of his usual antics. If he used the term fake news, I missed it. This is a time when we need leadership not politics. Now if we can just get the liberal side to follow suit.
 
Posted by blue hoot (Member # 398) on 03-17-2020, 11:34 AM:
 
I'm going to try to give you all some positive calculations on the coronavirus outbreak.
China population
1,408,526,449. Yes 1.4 billion
80,881 cases and 3,226 deaths
Here's the shocker in percentage of China population.
Cases: 0.00574 % (.1%)
Deaths: 0.00022 % (-.1%
That's point 1% not 1%.

Still serious but overhyped by the media. Also, figured out the U.S. and it's way lower than China and I also tripled our cases and still way low. Less than .1%. Kentucky has 22 cases and it would take 500 cases to reach 1% of Kentucky population. I love math because math don't lie.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-17-2020, 12:17 PM:
 
Tip:
quote:
Yeah, but where do you stop? For example, restaurants by the tens of thousands will close. We can't print enough money to cover the businesses that will suffer from this.
We could stop with the airlines. They realized $Billions from the new tax law, and used 96% of their free-flow cash for stock buy backs.

Greed has consequences, and oftentimes it's not good.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-17-2020, 02:06 PM:
 
hc:
quote:
On a side note, I watched the President’s news conference yesterday. I was encouraged. Not about the pandemic but his demeanor. He acted somewhat presidential and refrained from some of his usual antics. If he used the term fake news, I missed it. This is a time when we need leadership not politics.
I agree...more POTUS...less Trump. This is what this country needs right now...good for Trump...and the country.

quote:
Now if we can just get the liberal side to follow suit.
I'll see what I can do, hc. [Smile]
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-17-2020, 04:18 PM:
 
quote:
They realized $Billions from the new tax law, and used 96% of their free-flow cash for stock buy backs.
Not sure of what your source is for this figure, but this is easy to look up.

For Delta, their tax rate had hovered around 34-36% each year since 2015 (the earliest data I can quickly find) through 2017. Starting in 2018, that dropped to about 23%.

Delta's Free Cash Flow (defined as Cash from Operations minus Depreciation and Amortization, a rough proxy of how much it costs to simply continue business each year) has ranged fom $2.8B to $6.1B in a lumpy, up-and-down fashion (i.e., not just getting steadily larger over the years). In fact, the first year that the tax rate was cut, Delta's free cash flow was the lowest in five years ($2.8B). The next year it rose to a rather average $4.7B. In other words, while the tax cut did lower tax payments, it did not have any material effect on Delta's Free Cash Flow.

BTW, the Free Cash Flow is calculated AFTER accounting for payouts for dividends and stock buy-backs. Even so, Delta has spent the following percentage of Free Cash Flow on buy-backs:

2015: 36%
2016: 49%
2017: 60%
2018: 32% (AFTER the tax decrease)
2019: 34%

So, they paid a SMALLER percentage of FCF once the taxes were reduced. They have spent between $1.6B to $2.6B each year retiring stock.

Looking at Southwest, one of the best companies in the business, the results are similar. Stock buy-backs as a percentage of Free Cash Flow have been between 50% and 59%.

Keep in mind that Free Cash Flow is what is left over after the company has paid its bills and spent enough to keep operations going. This is the money that the management has to either invest in the company (buy more planes, develop new routes, etc.), hoard as cash, pay out as dividends, or buy back shares. Airlines are not a growth industry, so investing in new planes is not an effective use of cash. So, it comes down to either hoarding cash, paying more dividends, or buying back shares. Why do you get bothered that they bought back shares?
 
Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 03-17-2020, 08:37 PM:
 
Remember last week when we thought it would be a bad week because of the time change, Friday the thirteenth and a full moon? We didn’t have a clue.

Stolen from Facebook but I thought how true and had to share here.
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-17-2020, 09:01 PM:
 
Handy I guess we will have to turn you in for being a self confessed thief !!! Have to put you on notice ...

MEL
 
Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 03-18-2020, 06:13 AM:
 
Mel, I am an honest thief if nothing else. More than most of our politicians can say.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-18-2020, 09:12 AM:
 
hc:
quote:
Remember last week when we thought it would be a bad week because of the time change, Friday the thirteenth and a full moon? We didn’t have a clue.
We still don't!
 
Posted by blue hoot (Member # 398) on 03-18-2020, 09:37 AM:
 
quote:
Originally posted by Tiptree:
quote:
They realized $Billions from the new tax law, and used 96% of their free-flow cash for stock buy backs.
Not sure of what your source is for this figure, but this is easy to look up.

For Delta, their tax rate had hovered around 34-36% each year since 2015 (the earliest data I can quickly find) through 2017. Starting in 2018, that dropped to about 23%.

Delta's Free Cash Flow (defined as Cash from Operations minus Depreciation and Amortization, a rough proxy of how much it costs to simply continue business each year) has ranged fom $2.8B to $6.1B in a lumpy, up-and-down fashion (i.e., not just getting steadily larger over the years). In fact, the first year that the tax rate was cut, Delta's free cash flow was the lowest in five years ($2.8B). The next year it rose to a rather average $4.7B. In other words, while the tax cut did lower tax payments, it did not have any material effect on Delta's Free Cash Flow.

BTW, the Free Cash Flow is calculated AFTER accounting for payouts for dividends and stock buy-backs. Even so, Delta has spent the following percentage of Free Cash Flow on buy-backs:

2015: 36%
2016: 49%
2017: 60%
2018: 32% (AFTER the tax decrease)
2019: 34%

So, they paid a SMALLER percentage of FCF once the taxes were reduced. They have spent between $1.6B to $2.6B each year retiring stock.

Looking at Southwest, one of the best companies in the business, the results are similar. Stock buy-backs as a percentage of Free Cash Flow have been between 50% and 59%.

Keep in mind that Free Cash Flow is what is left over after the company has paid its bills and spent enough to keep operations going. This is the money that the management has to either invest in the company (buy more planes, develop new routes, etc.), hoard as cash, pay out as dividends, or buy back shares. Airlines are not a growth industry, so investing in new planes is not an effective use of cash. So, it comes down to either hoarding cash, paying more dividends, or buying back shares. Why do you get bothered that they bought back shares?

Here’s an idea, airlines should be required to buy unconditional business interruption insurance. Travelers would have to be willing to pay 5% more for airfare. Just thinking out loud.
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-18-2020, 10:02 AM:
 
quote:
Originally posted by handycat:
Mel, I am an honest thief if nothing else. More than most of our politicians can say.

So true Handy so true !!!

MEL
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-18-2020, 10:20 AM:
 
Tip:
quote:
Not sure of what your source is for this figure, but this is easy to look up.
Business Insider had an article about it (96%). I read the article a few days ago, but now you have to subscribe to read it???... so I didn't link it.

quote:
So, it comes down to either hoarding cash, paying more dividends, or buying back shares. Why do you get bothered that they bought back shares?
Why either/or? Why not pay dividends, buy back shares, and hoard some cash for, you know, a "rainy day". Like now.
 
Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 03-18-2020, 10:25 AM:
 
quote:
Originally posted by MountainMafia:
hc:
quote:
Remember last week when we thought it would be a bad week because of the time change, Friday the thirteenth and a full moon? We didn’t have a clue.
We still don't!
That's because people are generally born stupid. A small portion choose to become smart.

One of the reasons Ky is under emergency status is because one of the people who tested positive refused to self-quarantine. Beshear had to declare the emergency so he could put armed guards at the guy's house. Our society should be a lot better than that. But it isn't.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-18-2020, 11:28 AM:
 
PC:
quote:
One of the reasons Ky is under emergency status is because one of the people who tested positive refused to self-quarantine. Beshear had to declare the emergency so he could put armed guards at the guy's house.
Beshear declared a state of emergency March, 6, days before this fool showed up. It was the Nelson County Sheriff that parked deputies in front of his house 24/7.
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-18-2020, 11:55 AM:
 
quote:
Why either/or? Why not pay dividends, buy back shares, and hoard some cash for, you know, a "rainy day". Like now.
They did do all three. For example, Delta paid out $2.6B in dividends over the five years I had data for, and added about $700M to their balance sheet.

Business Insider is a wacky, conspiracy-theory web site. Lots of articles about how the US military is going to get crushed by the Chinese, or the Russians, and their 'business' news tends to the sensational side. I read them only for entertainment, but I never trust their "facts". There are much, much more reliable sources of financial or business information (and no, I don't mean CNBC).
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-18-2020, 12:31 PM:
 
Tip:
quote:

Business Insider is a wacky, conspiracy-theory web site. I read them only for entertainment

More "entertainment".

LINK

LINK 2

BTW, I would be interested in a "much more reliable source" that refutes these "facts"?

[ 03-18-2020, 03:44 PM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-18-2020, 03:55 PM:
 
Hell, Tip, me an u is fussing 'bout nut'n...make sure ur family is safe and go from there!
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-19-2020, 11:07 AM:
 
Yep. Fussin' about nothing that impacts you and me. Pretty darn silly of us.

But, we gotta do SOMETHING... it is "March Madness" time, after all.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-19-2020, 11:55 AM:
 
Tip:
quote:
But, we gotta do SOMETHING... it is "March Madness" time, after all.

You got that right!.

The real madness is the 40% increase in confirmed US cases in the last 24 hours.....up to 9000 now.

[ 03-19-2020, 11:59 AM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 
Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 03-19-2020, 12:07 PM:
 
I would bet this virus has been here since early January. People have had it come and go - just thought they had the flu or a cold or something. Only now do we know what it is because sick people are getting tested for it. Every year many people get flu shots which keeps it from becoming a national problem. If we just had vaccines for coronaviruses, this wouldn't even be an issue.
 
Posted by Old Norm (Member # 1482) on 03-19-2020, 12:16 PM:
 
I have a granddaughter in her mid twenties. She was really sick earlier this year. Had pretty much all the symptoms of this virus and the doctors had no idea. I think you guys may be right. She's okay now.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-19-2020, 04:08 PM:
 
PC:
quote:
If we just had vaccines for coronaviruses,
No time soon I'm afraid unless there is a major breakthrough....I hope!....I hope!....I hope!

We are testing other flu vaccines to see if they will help, and even skipping animal testing in developing new ones.

Desperate times requires desperate measures.
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-19-2020, 05:20 PM:
 
MM … saw today where they are testing a Malaria vaccine and in a small study it is working... have to see how it goes after some more testing.

MEL

[ 03-19-2020, 05:20 PM: Message edited by: MEL ]
 
Posted by CatFanInYankeeville (Member # 2025) on 03-20-2020, 10:20 AM:
 
Entire state of CA is shut down. I hear IL is about to implement checkpoints to shut down non essential travel. They've already begun to pass out passes to utility workers, medical providers and the like. Our governor has begun mobilizing the national guard, although currently in small numbers and supposedly to assess the viability of old, shuttered hospitals to be re-opened for Covid-19 patients.

It continues, my friends, with no end currently in sight.
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-20-2020, 10:45 AM:
 
Got my daughter out of California in the nick of time. Originally, she was scheduled to fly out next Wednesday, but I went ahead and bought her a one-way ticket earlier. She arrived home yesterday -- one day ahead of the shut-down.

This is feeling a lot like a dystopian sci-fi novel.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-20-2020, 10:56 AM:
 
CFIY:
quote:
Entire state of CA is shut down.
This too will spread to the rest of the country...just a matter of time.
 
Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 03-20-2020, 11:12 AM:
 
I still think there's a bit of overreaction in the US. I don't think this is something where we need to shut down the country like we're doing. If people could just be smart there wouldn't be a need for that at all.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-20-2020, 11:31 AM:
 
PC:
quote:
I still think there's a bit of overreaction in the US.
You may be right, but considering what we are up against....I'll take it! I'm a "better safe than sorry" person right now.

quote:
If people could just be smart there wouldn't be a need for that at all.
Therein lies the problem, my friend....people are stupid!
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-20-2020, 11:38 AM:
 
Well MM I think you are only thinking about your state and its people when saying people are stupid !!! [Razz]

Just kidding … people are stupid, many people think rules and laws apply only to others. Way too many entitled people these days. Just read where a lot of the younger generation are complaining about we are taking their lives away by closing bars and so forth and not allowing groups to get together. Lord help us if they can't party together for a few weeks.

MEL
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-20-2020, 12:30 PM:
 
The approach all nations seem to be taking is incredibly short-sighted, for two reasons:

(1) The amount of debt we are going to acquire from the spectacular economic interventions being planned will cripple us. If you think we had a dangerously high amount of debt before, don't look at what is about to happen!

(2) By adopting the social isolation method of dealing with this, we are preventing most of us from ever developing antibodies. In general, most healthy people will either not get sick at all, or will get sick and recover with no lasting problems. But in either case, exposure triggers the development of antibodies, so we will no longer be susceptible to that virus. We are "immune". But now, almost nobody will develop antibodies, so when this virus re-emerges, we will face the same problem. Another round of shutting down the economy? We can only hope that we can fast-track an effective vaccine, else this will turn ugly really fast come fall.
 
Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 03-20-2020, 01:01 PM:
 
Tip said (1) The amount of debt we are going to acquire from the spectacular economic interventions being planned will cripple us. If you think we had a dangerously high amount of debt before, don't look at what is about to happen

Exactly my concerns. I wish there was a means to distribute cash to those that are directly affected. It appears like we are going to print money and give it to everyone within a predetermined financial range. Not sure how that stimulates the economy as everyone is staying home and hoarding Everything. You can only buy so much TP. Yes, I know it is supposed to help those in need because of this pandemic but in reality we are just printing more money. Our children and grandchildren will pay for this dearly, at least IMO.

In another post I complimented President Trump about acting presidential. I’m watching his news briefing as I write this post. He has reverted to his old self. Because the news media is acting childish is no excuse for him to do likewise. Somebody needs to behave like an adult during this crisis!

[ 03-20-2020, 01:03 PM: Message edited by: handycat ]
 
Posted by m hamilton (Member # 127) on 03-20-2020, 06:29 PM:
 
I'm not sure the information they are getting out of China right now is truthful. I've seen several reports where they aren't even giving their own people truthful information on what is going on in their country!
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-21-2020, 10:00 AM:
 
hc:
quote:
In another post I complimented President Trump about acting presidential. I’m watching his news briefing as I write this post. He has reverted to his old self. Because the news media is acting childish is no excuse for him to do likewise. Somebody needs to behave like an adult during this crisis!
The only adult I've seen at these briefings is Dr. Fauci. He will tell it like it is....period.

[ 03-21-2020, 10:04 AM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 
Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 03-21-2020, 11:58 AM:
 
We have a friend who has attended a couple of seminars conducted by him. She spoke very highly of him before he became so well known. I’m also impressed by the lady doctor (can’t recall her name) who is quite prominent in these briefings as well as the surgeon general. For that matter I think Vice President Pence has handle himself well during this crisis.
 
Posted by Old Norm (Member # 1482) on 03-21-2020, 12:30 PM:
 
I think they are all handling the situation pretty well, with the exception of some of the news media. They cannot resist trying to catch the administration in a lie, and do everything they can to make them look bad.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-21-2020, 12:42 PM:
 
hc:
quote:
For that matter I think Vice President Pence has handle himself well during this crisis.
Pence is doing a great job!....let him do it Mr. President!

What I like about Fauci is that he doesn't seem to be intimidated by Trump...nada. He has openly, and on the same stage, contradicted him.

Dr. Fauci is not political, and has made it clear that he does not like being ask political questions...no hype, no promises, no guarantees...just sticks to the facts!

[ 03-21-2020, 12:44 PM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 
Posted by ukcatfannfl (Member # 1425) on 03-21-2020, 01:59 PM:
 
IMO one of the Presidents jobs is to give the people "hope"..He is doing that!!

[ 03-21-2020, 02:00 PM: Message edited by: ukcatfannfl ]
 
Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 03-21-2020, 05:36 PM:
 
We need to cut all of our Presidents a little slack. Corona isn’t President Trump’s fault. Ebola was’t President Obama’s fault. SAR’s wasn’t President Bush’s fault. Only a handful of cases of herpes was “proven” to be caused by President Clinton.

[ 03-21-2020, 05:43 PM: Message edited by: handycat ]
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-21-2020, 10:02 PM:
 
I ain’t lost hope, but after today when I think about the White House I think of the most secured location on the planet, guarded against virtually any intrusion imaginable, and COVID-19 walks right through door.

When the President & VP can’t be protected......... [Frown]
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-21-2020, 10:15 PM:
 
MM to be honest they aren't always in the WH.

MEL
 
Posted by ukcatfannfl (Member # 1425) on 03-21-2020, 10:26 PM:
 
Number one Observatory Circle VP residence

[ 03-21-2020, 10:30 PM: Message edited by: ukcatfannfl ]
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-21-2020, 11:02 PM:
 
MEL:
quote:
MM to be honest they aren't always in the WH.
OK?
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 03-21-2020, 11:33 PM:
 
So they could be infected anywhere.

MEL
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-22-2020, 09:16 AM:
 
My point is if the WH ain't safe no place is.

This is one contagious SOB. The NIH is saying we could have as many as 70,000 confirmed cases in the US by the end of NEXT WEEK!.

We currently have about 24,000 confirmed cases....THREE times this by the end of the week...not good!

The dreaded "surge" is beginning...we'll soon find out where we actually stand in this fight.

[ 03-22-2020, 09:22 AM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 
Posted by clydeh (Member # 7) on 03-22-2020, 09:49 AM:
 
This is a side note about fear and contagious disease. When I was a little boy (1943 or 1944) a child that lived across the street from us (near Louisville) had polio. I can still remember that my parents were terrorized because at that time there was no treatment and the immunization had not yet been developed. Many children who had polio were often paralyzed and disabled for life.
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-22-2020, 10:07 AM:
 
clydeh,

Which town did you grow up in?

MM,

It is unclear how many cases we have, and whether they are anticipating a surge of testing will reveal more cases, or that the actual number of cases will reach 70,000 (confirmed or not).

Currently, the number of infections is doubling roughly every 2.5 days everywhere except Singapore and Japan; China and South Korea started off with that rate, but have seen it level off to nearly zero new cases recently.

My suspicion is that many, many more than 70,000 have been infected, but most are asymptomatic. Now that we are all hiding in our bunkers, the rate of spread should begin to rapidly decline. However, given the long incubation period, we will see more and more confirmed cases over the next month.

Hang on. This too shall pass.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-22-2020, 11:21 AM:
 
Tip:
quote:
My suspicion is that many, many more than 70,000 have been infected, but most are asymptomatic.
The estimates I've seen has the asymptomatic portion at less than 20%.

The surge I was referring to is the impact on our healthcare system where hospitals and workers become overwhelmed. We have virtually no surge capacity. We have a shortage of beds, ventilators, PPE, etc.

Italy has a better bed/patient ratio than we do, and they are now sending the elderly home to die.

I don't think we will reach that level, but.....we'll see.
 
Posted by clydeh (Member # 7) on 03-22-2020, 12:01 PM:
 
Tip,
We moved to Middletown just after that and that is where we lived (in different houses) until I got married. The place where the polio story took place was called the "eight mile house". I don't know what that meant but it was several miles out of Louisville on Highway 60 toward Middletown
 
Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 03-22-2020, 03:27 PM:
 
American basketball players have just returned to China to get ready for the Chinese basketball association to start back up. It is reported that China hasn't had a new case of the virus in three days. Like Tip said, this will pass.

[ 03-22-2020, 09:33 PM: Message edited by: PaulCat ]
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-22-2020, 03:52 PM:
 
PC:
quote:
China hasn't had a new case of the virus in three days.
Good for China!....Great for China! With all do respect, get back with me when "no new cases" are reported in the US....particularly Alabama.

[ 03-22-2020, 04:31 PM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 
Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 03-22-2020, 04:53 PM:
 
MM, I'll keep you posted.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-22-2020, 04:57 PM:
 
Sorry PC...didn't mean to sound like an ass.
 
Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 03-22-2020, 07:50 PM:
 
No worries, MM. It's all good. [Smile]
 
Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 03-22-2020, 08:29 PM:
 
We got word today that a friend’s younger brother in Ky has passed away from coronavirus. I didn’t know him as he was several years younger than my friend. He was somewhere south of 70, reasonably good health and was gone in a few days. No funeral. Unfortunately, this may become common place. I think I’ll stop complaining about being locked in.
 
Posted by clydeh (Member # 7) on 03-22-2020, 08:57 PM:
 
Handy, I've also been complaining, but I am complaining much less than I was. Our family is watching out for us. My daughter and daughter-in-law just brought us in some groceries that should last us several days.
 
Posted by Old Norm (Member # 1482) on 03-22-2020, 10:43 PM:
 
We've had four offers to go to the grocery for us, a nephew, a grandson and two neighbors. So far we are good, but I have all their phone numbers! The grandson is the most closely related, but he lives the furthest away.
 
Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 03-23-2020, 05:56 AM:
 
Our daughter and son our both insisting they go to the store for us. So far we have resisted. We have no reported cases in our county yet the entire state is in lockdown. I really need to make a trip to the hardware store as my wife has made a honey do list. They have been allowed to remain open.

Like I said, I guess I should count my blessings and quit complaining.

I have a few masks I wear when I do yard work. Does anyone know if they provide any protection?

[ 03-23-2020, 06:03 AM: Message edited by: handycat ]
 
Posted by m hamilton (Member # 127) on 03-23-2020, 06:17 AM:
 
They do provide protection. The 3m masks that have been used for years in the construction trade have been released to be used for this situation. I don't think they had taken the time to push them through regulations to see if they were safe and reliable, but, they've broken through the red tape to allow them to be used.
I've been seeing on line where people are making their own out of cotton cloth!
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-23-2020, 06:51 AM:
 
hc:
quote:
I have a few masks I wear when I do yard work. Does anyone know if they provide any protection?
Look for N95 on the packaging or mask...these are the most effective, and the ones in high demand.

I bought a new box for my woodworking just before the chit hit the fan....close call.

As long as you keep a safe distance from other people any kind will work ok.

The biggest protection a mask will give you is that it keeps your hands away from your nose and mouth.

On the average we touch our face over 20 times an hour.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-26-2020, 07:23 PM:
 
Update:

We are now the most infected nation on the planet...over 81,000 confirmed cases.

That's the good news. The bad news? This is where we were two weeks ago...that's how far behind our testing and contact tracing is.

Something else a little disturbing....The first confirmed case in the US was Jan. 21, same day as South Korea's first confirmed case.

[ 03-26-2020, 08:00 PM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 03-26-2020, 11:19 PM:
 
...and Italy is not too far behind. Heck, if you add up all the European nations, they have over 260,000 cases -- over triple our number for roughly the same population. NOT good.

Take a look at the map from Johns Hopkins university. A few days ago most of the US was open... only NY, FL, and LA were big red circles. NOW... most of the Eastern half of the country is a sea of red.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[ 03-26-2020, 11:23 PM: Message edited by: Tiptree ]
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 03-26-2020, 11:47 PM:
 
It was just announced in Tuscaloosa starting Sun 10pm total 24/7 lockdown except for essentials....not one damn bit good!
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 04-02-2020, 09:27 AM:
 
On March 1st the US had one death. On April 1st over 1000... per day!
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 04-02-2020, 12:16 PM:
 
quote:
Originally posted by MountainMafia:
On March 1st the US had one death. On April 1st over 1000... per day!

So MM you are saying there have been over 30,000 deaths from the corona)virus the US … Everything I am reading (CDC) has the total US deaths around 5,000. That is quite a bit of difference. Where are you getting your information ???

MEL
 
Posted by catmandoo (Member # 1284) on 04-02-2020, 12:35 PM:
 
113 thousand people have recovered from the virus which is 98.2 percent that is what should be reported.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 04-02-2020, 12:36 PM:
 
MEL:
quote:
So MM you are saying there have been over 30,000 deaths from the corona)virus the US … Everything I am reading (CDC) has the total US deaths around 5,000. That is quite a bit of difference. Where are you getting your information ???

We reached 1000 deaths in one day yesterday, and that number is headed straight up. We could hit 1500 a day before the week is out....30,000 total deaths is just around the corner!

[ 04-02-2020, 12:39 PM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 
Posted by catmandoo (Member # 1284) on 04-02-2020, 12:57 PM:
 
]Johns Hopkins University coronavirus COVID-19 tracker has tallied more than 202,000 recoveries since the virus was first detected in Wuhan, the capital city of China’s Hubei province, in late December.

In the United States, which leads the world in confirmed coronavirus cases with more than 216,000, more than 8,700 patients have made recoveries so far.

China has seen more than 76,000 recoveries out of its more than 82,000 cases, while Italy has had more than 16,000 recoveries out of its more than 110,000 cases. Spain has tallied more than 26,000 patients who have recovered.

While the disease can cause varying degrees of illness and even death, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) say adults aged 65 and older, and people of any age who have serious underlying medical conditions such as heart and lung disease or diabetes, might be at higher risk for severe illness from COVID-19.

But for the majority of people who become infected, the coronavirus brings only mild symptoms, such as cough and fever.

WHO says those that experience mild symptoms typically recover from the illness in about two weeks, while those who experience more severe illness could take up to six weeks to recover.


Link
 
Posted by ukcatfannfl (Member # 1425) on 04-02-2020, 04:22 PM:
 
Don't believe a word cdc says - they are the propaganda arm of the Chinese...

[ 04-02-2020, 04:24 PM: Message edited by: ukcatfannfl ]
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 04-02-2020, 04:56 PM:
 
Ed,

There is the Chinese version of the CDC, which one certainly must be wary of. But the CDC is the Center for Disease Control, based in Atlanta, and is hardly an organ for Chinese propaganda. In fact, I trust it, and John Hopkins university's COVID site, more than I trust WHO.
 
Posted by m hamilton (Member # 127) on 04-02-2020, 07:10 PM:
 
The question I have is this, are they dying from the virus, or are they dying with the virus?

There's a big difference!
 
Posted by m hamilton (Member # 127) on 04-02-2020, 07:11 PM:
 
To follow up on the above question, has the number of deaths due to the flu dropped now that the Virus numbers have started going up?
 
Posted by ukcatfannfl (Member # 1425) on 04-02-2020, 10:36 PM:
 
Sorry I meant the W.H.O even though the CDC hasn't been very forthcoming until later in what is going on (at least as I understand it)...
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 04-03-2020, 10:07 AM:
 
Ed:
quote:
the CDC hasn't been very forthcoming until later
??
 
Posted by ukcatfannfl (Member # 1425) on 04-03-2020, 02:39 PM:
 
The federal agency's message comes roughly two months after the virus was first reported in central China. Known officially as COVID-19, the coronavirus has infected nearly 80,000 people in 37 countries and led to at least 2,600 deaths.
__________________________________________________

I had read this sometime ago and the cdc among others didn't think it was a big deal until later on..

To their credit however, they did go on and ack trumps actions helped the spread in the u.s.

_______________________________________________
"The cases in the United States have been relatively limited to date, which federal officials have credited to early containment measures, including border restrictions and airport screenings."
___________________________________________

MM just my take - could be totally wrong!

p.s. it is the W H O who carries the water for China!!
__________________________________________________

[ 04-03-2020, 11:34 PM: Message edited by: ukcatfannfl ]
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 04-03-2020, 11:44 PM:
 
This virus didn't blindside us any more than any other country, yet our response (if you can call it that) is a joke.

It's been 10 weeks since our first confirmed case and 1400 (and counting) people died just today, doctors and nurses still don't have PPE, states still fighting one another and FEMA for supplies, strategic stockpile depleted, no coordination what. so. ever!

We, The United States of America, are looking like a 3rd world country.

Update:

1480 people have died in the US in a 24-hour period...the most of any country in the world by far. [Frown]

[ 04-04-2020, 01:05 AM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 
Posted by Old Norm (Member # 1482) on 04-04-2020, 09:37 AM:
 
"1480 people have died in the US in a 24-hour period...the most of any country in the world by far."

Methinks China's real death toll from this, far exceeds what they are saying. By the way, what do you think we should have, or could have done differently.
 
Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 04-04-2020, 11:11 AM:
 
The death toll in the US will reach numbers that it shouldn't have to. Half of the American people are thoughtless, selfish, arrogant, entitled people who are still out partying, shopping, going about their daily lives like nothing is happening. China is getting by this because they can control their people. Our country was simply unprepared for what is going on right now. It's easy to blame the government for this (and for the most part, rightfully so), but the citizens of this country are way more to blame for the spread of this virus than the government is.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 04-04-2020, 11:28 AM:
 
Norm:
quote:
Methinks China's real death toll from this, far exceeds what they are saying
I don't doubt that one iota, Norm. But that's China, we're used to, even expect, misinformation and lack of transparency from them....It should not shock us at all.

quote:
By the way, what do you think we should have, or could have done differently.
With the benefit of hindsight it is obvious where, when, and why we have failed to control the virus...many instances where we could have and should have done things differently.

Downplaying the seriousness and failing to act early was the biggest mistake of all...we lost too much precious time to prepare. We started out behind and have been getting more and more behind ever since.

This is Trump's mistake! But I want to qualify that.

When the virus first appeared in the US (Jan 20) nobody imagined it would explode like it has. The economy was doing great, we were gearing up for a robust political campaign and election...the country was on sound financial footing.

The last thing Trump wanted to do was to unnecessarily cause a nation-wide panic...I get that, I do. Given the circumstances at the time I probably would have made the same decision.

But sometimes the most logical and sensible decisions turn out to be wrong...as this one did. That's why you need a contingency plan...you know, just in case you're wrong.

The concept of being wrong doesn't exist with this President...never! So, we are where we are.

A question for you.

If we could go back and start over, and you were President, would you do anything differently?
 
Posted by clydeh (Member # 7) on 04-04-2020, 11:51 AM:
 
MM,
When the Asiatic flue was an epidemic in this country in the late fifties, I don't remember anything was done nationally to stop the spread. Eisenhower was president as I recall. I was in college. I know many people died. With the government's action this time to control this virus spread, I wonder if the actions will be worse than the virus. Back in the fifties we did not have the news organizations focusing on the flu like they are focusing on the present virus. The continuous news reports have people afraid, including me. My children are warning my wife and me every day to stay safe and stay at home.
 
Posted by Old Norm (Member # 1482) on 04-04-2020, 12:08 PM:
 
"If we could go back and start over, and you were President, would you do anything differently?"

I can't find in your post where you answered this questions, yet you want me to answer? The president banned travel from China very early, and many of his opponents, you know who they are, raised holy Hell. It wouldn't make a damn bit of difference what he does or doesn't do. The media and the usual crowd would condemn and blame him.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 04-04-2020, 12:11 PM:
 
clydeh:
quote:
With the government's action this time to control this virus spread, I wonder if the actions will be worse than the virus.
I don't what could be worse than the virus, it is the root of our problems after all.

It's the government's inaction that has worsened the problem.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 04-04-2020, 12:20 PM:
 
Norm:
quote:
I can't find in your post where you answered this questions, yet you want me to answer?
I answered clearly what I thought was our biggest mistake without going into a day-by-day account.

I ask you one question...would you do anything differently?

quote:
It wouldn't make a damn bit of difference what he does or doesn't do. The media and the usual crowd would condemn and blame him.
That comes with the territory no matter who is president.

[ 04-04-2020, 12:27 PM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 
Posted by clydeh (Member # 7) on 04-04-2020, 12:40 PM:
 
MM,
What I was thinking on my last post was whether the actions of the government would be worse than the virus. I understand that the virus is serious and is causing deaths and misery, particularly in us old people. I certainly don't want my wife and me to get it. I meant whether the "treatment was worse than the disease", considering all the effects on the economy. There are occasions in medical care where i think the "treatment is worse than the disease". I do think the governments' actions (state and federal) will decrease the spread of this virus.
 
Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 04-04-2020, 01:08 PM:
 
clydeh:
quote:
With the government's action this time to control this virus spread, I wonder if the actions will be worse than the virus.

I wonder the same thing. Throughout history we have had pandemic’s (plagues) Some of them far, far worse than the consequences this one would be even without the intervention of modern medicine. Depending on who you believe, the mortality rate hovers around 1%. Peanuts compared to many of the illnesses that have previously ravaged our planet. To use less than everything we have available in our arsenal of modern medicine would be criminal. A little dose of common sense would also be helpful. But it honestly appears to me we are getting close to where the cure may be worse than the disease itself.

Most agree this disease is primarily fatal to older people (myself) and those with underlying health issues (myself). I’m certainly not trying to be macho and do not have a death wish but we all have to die. I’m almost to the point of taking my chances and get on with life.

IMO, Trump has handled this as well can be expected. His preparedness for this, or lack of, is not his fault. It is also not the fault of any of his predecessors.

[ 04-04-2020, 01:20 PM: Message edited by: handycat ]
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 04-04-2020, 01:22 PM:
 
quote:
When the virus first appeared in the US (Jan 20) nobody imagined it would explode like it has. The economy was doing great, we were gearing up for a robust political campaign and election...the country was on sound financial footing.
I think you are missing one very, very important thing... the entire government was embroiled in the ridiculous, spurious, and entirely political grandstanding called an "Impeachment trial". No bills were being passed, no planning was being done, because the democratic party needed a vehicle to vindicate its haplessness.

If you want to blame a person, blame Schiff and Pelosi. They distracted the entire nation on the flimsiest of evidence, and that show-trial started on January 16th.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 04-04-2020, 02:26 PM:
 
Tip:
quote:
I think you are missing one very, very important thing... the entire government was embroiled in the ridiculous, spurious, and entirely political grandstanding called an "Impeachment trial". No bills were being passed, no planning was being done, because the democratic party needed a vehicle to vindicate its haplessness.

If you want to blame a person, blame Schiff and Pelosi. They distracted the entire nation on the flimsiest of evidence, and that show-trial started on January 16th.

C'on Tip, even Trump don't buy that.

“I don’t think I would have done better had I not been impeached, OK?” Trump said. “And I think that’s a great tribute to something. Maybe it’s a tribute to me. But I don’t think I would’ve acted any differently or I don’t think I would’ve acted any faster.”

[ 04-04-2020, 02:54 PM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 
Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 04-04-2020, 03:05 PM:
 
Take your laser-like focus off of Trump, man. I said every part of our government pretty much ground to a halt during the impeachment.

Trump never thinks he did anything poorly.
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 04-04-2020, 04:38 PM:
 
Tip:
quote:
Take your laser-like focus off of Trump, man. I said every part of our government pretty much ground to a halt during the impeachment.

Except for the HoR, Trump is the government!

The Senate acquitted Trump on Feb 5...two months ago.

The first thing they did was take a 5-day weekend.

The first thing they did upon their return was affirm federal judges, Mitch McConnell's number one item on his bucket list.

Trump played golf and held rallies while downplaying the virus.

I guess the distraction hadn't totally worn off yet?
 
Posted by MEL (Member # 141) on 04-04-2020, 05:04 PM:
 
quote:
Originally posted by MountainMafia:
Norm:

quote:
It wouldn't make a damn bit of difference what he does or doesn't do. The media and the usual crowd would condemn and blame him.
That comes with the territory no matter who is president.
Hmmmmm it didn't seem to come with the territory of Obama or Hilary and all of the things they deflected time after time.
And now Pelosi is wanting to start a inquiry into President Trump taking so long to get things going. Is she just a total idiot (yeah I know that is a dumb question) ?!?!? No one knew what was going to happen with this And I mean "No One" !!! Blaming someone for not starting things faster doesn't change a thing and to blame someone on something you or she or anyone else would have done any better is total BS !!! It is easy to go back a month or so later and say someone should have done something sooner or to say you would have done better if it had be you (not u MM) hind damn sight is so nice !!! Pelosi is just spending money and time on an agenda against the President which she has done since he was elected and not helping with the problem at hand !!!
Everyone doesn't have to like him but to keep blaming him for things that no one knew is crazy !!! Look at the Senators that sold stock (right after the meeting on corona virus) and I don't believe for a minute that they didn't know it was taking place... those 4 Reps and Dem should have resigned on the spot !!! But did they or Pelosi say we need to do this or that … if fact I think (if I remember correctly) President Trump stopped commercial flights to certain countries and he was criticized for acting to soon and being a racist.
Take a look at Gov Brown who got rid of all the necessary items California had when Gov Schwarzenegger had prepared for such a thing (not a virus per say but a catastrophe) after Katrina. And guess who needs those types of items right now (California) as well as the rest of the US !!!

This country is coming together (IMHO) now like we did after 911 !!! Put Pelosi and other politians keep attacking "THEIR" President without stopping instead of coming together like the people of this fine country !!! Time to empty the damn swamp and put in term limits !!! The people of this country aren't stupid and it is going to cost her and her cronies in the future if not already !!! She has an agenda and will not stop it to even help "us" (the people of this country) in a time of need !!!


MEL
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 04-04-2020, 05:23 PM:
 
MEL:
quote:
Hmmmmm it didn't seem to come with the territory of Obama
Don't think you want to go there, MEL....could be wrong though...whatever?
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 04-05-2020, 06:56 AM:
 
clydeh:
quote:
I meant whether the "treatment was worse than the disease", considering all the effects on the economy. There are occasions in medical care where i think the "treatment is worse than the disease".
There's no way of knowing whether the "treatment is worse than the disease". Until we have a vaccine the only "treatment" is isolation and containment...that's it! Even this doesn't work without adequate testing, which we still aren't doing....any prolonged agony we endure is on us.

To send people back to work without having the virus under control would be like putting them in the water with a shark...it won't turn out good and most likely would ignite another wave of massive "hotspots"...back to square one.

hc:

quote:
I’m almost to the point of taking my chances and get on with life.
Hope you ain't serious, hc. That would literally be risking your life and the lives of your family and loved ones...don't want to do that my friend.
 
Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 04-05-2020, 08:28 AM:
 
M&M, only about half serious, frustration talking more than anything else. Passing it along to others will stop me. It’s never been conclusively proven that I’m not immortal. But if I decide to say the hell with it, i’ll Be sure to look you up and give you a big sloppy kiss. 😀

Edited this to add a prediction. At some point in time Trump will have to recommend lifting restrictions and restart the country. When this happens, Nancy and friends will not only be critical but start impeachment proceedings.

[ 04-05-2020, 08:44 AM: Message edited by: handycat ]
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 04-05-2020, 09:14 AM:
 
hc:

quote:
But if I decide to say the hell with it, i’ll Be sure to look you up and give you a big sloppy kiss.
[Frown]

quote:
Edited this to add a prediction. At some point in time Trump will have to recommend lifting restrictions and restart the country. When this happens, Nancy and friends will not only be critical but start impeachment proceedings.

That would be a huge mistake!

[ 04-05-2020, 12:22 PM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 
Posted by handycat (Member # 2323) on 04-05-2020, 09:24 AM:
 
Impeachment proceedings or restart the country?
 
Posted by MountainMafia (Member # 2066) on 04-05-2020, 09:41 AM:
 
Both!

[ 04-05-2020, 12:23 PM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
 


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