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Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 04-02-2019, 11:28 AM:

Points scored in UK losses compared to Season Average

2010 - 66 points compared to 80 PPG average
2011 - 55 points compared to 75 PPG average
2014 - 54 points compared to 75 PPG average
2015 - 64 points compared to 75 PPG average
2016 - 67 points compared to 79 PPG average
2017 - 73 points compared to 85 PPG average
2018 - 58 points compared to 77 PPG average
2019 - 60 points in reg compared to 77 PPG average

The common theme in every game, except for 2015. Our Freshmen guards did not play well. Wall, Bledsoe, Knight, Harrison twins in 2014, Jamal Murray, Fox, Monk, SGA, and now Haggans/Herro/Quickly. Although I do give Fox and Monk somewhat of a pass due to the horrible officiating in that UNC game (Sorry MEL, but it is true and I don't blame officials usually).

So, as the guards go, the UK production goes which isn't a revelation but to put it on paper and see UK is averaging almost 16 PPG's less in their losses vs. the seasonal PPG average is phenomenal to me.

So any of those games if UK just executes close to their regular season offensive efficiency they win going away because their defensive PPG's average is better most years in the tournament vs. regular season.

If you look at the individual stats of those games you will see some terrible shooting percentages from the field and awful assist to turnover ratios.

We always say guards win in March and this kind of proves it.

[ 04-02-2019, 11:31 AM: Message edited by: Trey Ball ]

Posted by blue hoot (Member # 398) on 04-02-2019, 11:35 AM:

Could it be they just play too nervous and tighten up. Maybe they feel too much pressure to win in the tournament. Those are very interesting stats and thanks for listing it.

Posted by Tiptree (Member # 844) on 04-02-2019, 11:38 AM:

Fascinating, and confirming of the popular wisdom. Guard play wins championships. At the very least, your guards must be adequate, and play even to their typical play. Great guards are a huge bonus, of course, but even then they must not have a let-down in the tournament. When the guards play poorly, the bigs cannot rescue them.

This is where the one-and-done recruiting runs into reality. Seasoned, steady, upperclassmen as guards are essential. Freshmen often have melt-downs in the pressure of the tournament, and it is fatal. I could live with a revolving door of freshmen forwards, but we really need a solid pipeline of guards that will stay 3-4 years and can play heady basketball when the stakes are highest.

[ 04-02-2019, 11:39 AM: Message edited by: Tiptree ]

Posted by PaulCat (Member # 513) on 04-02-2019, 12:07 PM:

Wow! That's amazing - at least a double-digit difference each year. Maybe someone needs to mail this info to Cal.

Posted by Old Norm (Member # 1482) on 04-02-2019, 12:29 PM:

Maybe, just maybe, it's because of the quality of the teams they are playing. In the tournament, they are playing against the best of the best. Not so much during regular season.

Posted by Trey Ball (Member # 332) on 04-02-2019, 02:49 PM:

quote:
Originally posted by Old Norm:
Maybe, just maybe, it's because of the quality of the teams they are playing. In the tournament, they are playing against the best of the best. Not so much during regular season.

Norm,

I'm sure that accounts for some of it, but I would have thought maybe 4 or 6 points. Just look at Auburn. Kentucky scored 82 points and 80 points against Auburn in the Regular season, but we get to the tournament and can only score 60 points in regulation against them?

Auburn put up 97 on UNC. It just seems in UK losses it is because they struggle to score with the same efficiency they did during the regular season. I saw something that said this was only the fourth game that UK was below 1.0 points per possession. They finished at something below 0.72 points per possession. It seems as though the defense is always there at tournament time, but the offensive execution is not.

I will use 2014 as an example because that was the year UK was a #8 Seed so all the games were against better competition.

UK did survive the first round against Kansas State by only scoring 56 points, but after that here were the scores:

UK 78 Wichita State 76 (WSU was the best defensive efficiency team in the nation that year and undefeated)

UK 74 Louisville 69

UK 75 Michigan 72

UK 74 Wisconsin 73

Championship game they only score 54 against UCONN.

During Cal's 10 years UK is 20-1 in NCAA Tournament games when scoring more than 70 points in regulation (only loss to UNC in 2017). They are 11-8 when scoring under 70.

[ 04-02-2019, 03:02 PM: Message edited by: Trey Ball ]

Posted by ukcatfannfl (Member # 1425) on 04-02-2019, 03:45 PM:

That's impressive info Trey tks for sharing!

Posted by m hamilton (Member # 127) on 04-02-2019, 07:34 PM:

I've been saying since Sunday that our young guards get tight when the pressure is put on them. This is also the reason why we always seem to shoot a lower FT percentage in tourney than regular season!

Posted by WHO?UK (Member # 2286) on 04-03-2019, 11:49 AM:

TREY BALL

Phenomenal intel! Thank you!