Tiptree
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Member # 844
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posted 03-29-2020 07:07 PM
In my opinion, the EU will not survive another decade. The "rich nations vs. Poor nations" divide will be its undoing. France and Germany (now that the UK is gone) are the "donor nations", and thus, control the dialog in Brussels. But each have very, very different aims for the EU. France wants tighter economic, political, and military integration; Germany only wants the EU to be a duty-free zone for its exports (which amount to 50% of its economy). Germany sees value in detente with Russia; France wants to rival Russia in power and reach.
The "poor nations" along the southern rim (Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal) are beholden to the others for aid. This is even more true for the newest members in the east (Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria) and the fledgling applicants in the Balkans.
The eastern countries (the so-called 'intermarium') are far more worried about a newly aggressive Russia than they are about what Germany or France want. This is why US interests are shifting decisively towards those countries, and we are shifting military assets out of Germany and into Poland and the Baltic states. I could see those countries breaking away from the EU and forming a new federation, with full US support, leaving Western Europe to continue to pretend to be "united".
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
Posts: 13601 | From: Terre Haute, IN | Registered: Sep 2000
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