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Author
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Topic: Coronavirus
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-18-2020 09:12 AM
hc:
quote:
Remember last week when we thought it would be a bad week because of the time change, Friday the thirteenth and a full moon? We didn’t have a clue.
We still don't!
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
Posts: 4694 | From: Alabama | Registered: Aug 2003
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blue hoot
Player
Member # 398
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posted 03-18-2020 09:37 AM
quote:
Originally posted by Tiptree:
quote:
They realized $Billions from the new tax law, and used 96% of their free-flow cash for stock buy backs.
Not sure of what your source is for this figure, but this is easy to look up.
For Delta, their tax rate had hovered around 34-36% each year since 2015 (the earliest data I can quickly find) through 2017. Starting in 2018, that dropped to about 23%.
Delta's Free Cash Flow (defined as Cash from Operations minus Depreciation and Amortization, a rough proxy of how much it costs to simply continue business each year) has ranged fom $2.8B to $6.1B in a lumpy, up-and-down fashion (i.e., not just getting steadily larger over the years). In fact, the first year that the tax rate was cut, Delta's free cash flow was the lowest in five years ($2.8B). The next year it rose to a rather average $4.7B. In other words, while the tax cut did lower tax payments, it did not have any material effect on Delta's Free Cash Flow.
BTW, the Free Cash Flow is calculated AFTER accounting for payouts for dividends and stock buy-backs. Even so, Delta has spent the following percentage of Free Cash Flow on buy-backs:
2015: 36%
2016: 49%
2017: 60%
2018: 32% (AFTER the tax decrease)
2019: 34%
So, they paid a SMALLER percentage of FCF once the taxes were reduced. They have spent between $1.6B to $2.6B each year retiring stock.
Looking at Southwest, one of the best companies in the business, the results are similar. Stock buy-backs as a percentage of Free Cash Flow have been between 50% and 59%.
Keep in mind that Free Cash Flow is what is left over after the company has paid its bills and spent enough to keep operations going. This is the money that the management has to either invest in the company (buy more planes, develop new routes, etc.), hoard as cash, pay out as dividends, or buy back shares. Airlines are not a growth industry, so investing in new planes is not an effective use of cash. So, it comes down to either hoarding cash, paying more dividends, or buying back shares. Why do you get bothered that they bought back shares?
Here’s an idea, airlines should be required to buy unconditional business interruption insurance. Travelers would have to be willing to pay 5% more for airfare. Just thinking out loud.
Posts: 1497 | From: Wimauma, FL | Registered: Feb 2000
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MEL
Player
Member # 141
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posted 03-18-2020 10:02 AM
quote:
Originally posted by handycat:
Mel, I am an honest thief if nothing else. More than most of our politicians can say.
So true Handy so true !!!
MEL
Posts: 2795 | From: Greeley, CO, USA | Registered: Sep 1999
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MountainMafia
Player
Member # 2066
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posted 03-18-2020 10:20 AM
Tip:
quote:
Not sure of what your source is for this figure, but this is easy to look up.
Business Insider had an article about it (96%). I read the article a few days ago, but now you have to subscribe to read it???... so I didn't link it.
quote:
So, it comes down to either hoarding cash, paying more dividends, or buying back shares. Why do you get bothered that they bought back shares?
Why either/or? Why not pay dividends, buy back shares, and hoard some cash for, you know, a "rainy day". Like now.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
Posts: 4694 | From: Alabama | Registered: Aug 2003
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PaulCat
Player
Member # 513
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posted 03-18-2020 10:25 AM
quote:
Originally posted by MountainMafia:
hc:
quote:
Remember last week when we thought it would be a bad week because of the time change, Friday the thirteenth and a full moon? We didn’t have a clue.
We still don't!
That's because people are generally born stupid. A small portion choose to become smart.
One of the reasons Ky is under emergency status is because one of the people who tested positive refused to self-quarantine. Beshear had to declare the emergency so he could put armed guards at the guy's house. Our society should be a lot better than that. But it isn't.
Posts: 10348 | From: Erlanger, Ky. USA | Registered: Mar 2000
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-18-2020 11:28 AM
PC:
quote:
One of the reasons Ky is under emergency status is because one of the people who tested positive refused to self-quarantine. Beshear had to declare the emergency so he could put armed guards at the guy's house.
Beshear declared a state of emergency March, 6, days before this fool showed up. It was the Nelson County Sheriff that parked deputies in front of his house 24/7.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
Posts: 4694 | From: Alabama | Registered: Aug 2003
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Tiptree
Administrator
Member # 844
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posted 03-18-2020 11:55 AM
quote:
Why either/or? Why not pay dividends, buy back shares, and hoard some cash for, you know, a "rainy day". Like now.
They did do all three. For example, Delta paid out $2.6B in dividends over the five years I had data for, and added about $700M to their balance sheet.
Business Insider is a wacky, conspiracy-theory web site. Lots of articles about how the US military is going to get crushed by the Chinese, or the Russians, and their 'business' news tends to the sensational side. I read them only for entertainment, but I never trust their "facts". There are much, much more reliable sources of financial or business information (and no, I don't mean CNBC).
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-18-2020 12:31 PM
Tip:
quote:
Business Insider is a wacky, conspiracy-theory web site. I read them only for entertainment
More "entertainment".
LINK
LINK 2
BTW, I would be interested in a "much more reliable source" that refutes these "facts"?
[ 03-18-2020, 03:44 PM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
Posts: 4694 | From: Alabama | Registered: Aug 2003
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-18-2020 03:55 PM
Hell, Tip, me an u is fussing 'bout nut'n...make sure ur family is safe and go from there!
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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Tiptree
Administrator
Member # 844
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posted 03-19-2020 11:07 AM
Yep. Fussin' about nothing that impacts you and me. Pretty darn silly of us.
But, we gotta do SOMETHING... it is "March Madness" time, after all.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
Posts: 13628 | From: Terre Haute, IN | Registered: Sep 2000
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MountainMafia
Player
Member # 2066
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posted 03-19-2020 11:55 AM
Tip:
quote:
But, we gotta do SOMETHING... it is "March Madness" time, after all.
You got that right!.
The real madness is the 40% increase in confirmed US cases in the last 24 hours.....up to 9000 now.
[ 03-19-2020, 11:59 AM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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PaulCat
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Member # 513
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posted 03-19-2020 12:07 PM
I would bet this virus has been here since early January. People have had it come and go - just thought they had the flu or a cold or something. Only now do we know what it is because sick people are getting tested for it. Every year many people get flu shots which keeps it from becoming a national problem. If we just had vaccines for coronaviruses, this wouldn't even be an issue.
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Old Norm
Administrator
Member # 1482
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posted 03-19-2020 12:16 PM
I have a granddaughter in her mid twenties. She was really sick earlier this year. Had pretty much all the symptoms of this virus and the doctors had no idea. I think you guys may be right. She's okay now.
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Pray For Our Country!
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-19-2020 04:08 PM
PC:
quote:
If we just had vaccines for coronaviruses,
No time soon I'm afraid unless there is a major breakthrough....I hope!....I hope!....I hope!
We are testing other flu vaccines to see if they will help, and even skipping animal testing in developing new ones.
Desperate times requires desperate measures.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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MEL
Player
Member # 141
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posted 03-19-2020 05:20 PM
MM … saw today where they are testing a Malaria vaccine and in a small study it is working... have to see how it goes after some more testing.
MEL
[ 03-19-2020, 05:20 PM: Message edited by: MEL ]
Posts: 2795 | From: Greeley, CO, USA | Registered: Sep 1999
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CatFanInYankeeville
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Member # 2025
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posted 03-20-2020 10:20 AM
Entire state of CA is shut down. I hear IL is about to implement checkpoints to shut down non essential travel. They've already begun to pass out passes to utility workers, medical providers and the like. Our governor has begun mobilizing the national guard, although currently in small numbers and supposedly to assess the viability of old, shuttered hospitals to be re-opened for Covid-19 patients.
It continues, my friends, with no end currently in sight.
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“Any man who thinks he can be happy and prosperous by letting the Government take care of him; better take a closer look at the American Indian!” Henry Ford
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Tiptree
Administrator
Member # 844
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posted 03-20-2020 10:45 AM
Got my daughter out of California in the nick of time. Originally, she was scheduled to fly out next Wednesday, but I went ahead and bought her a one-way ticket earlier. She arrived home yesterday -- one day ahead of the shut-down.
This is feeling a lot like a dystopian sci-fi novel.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-20-2020 10:56 AM
CFIY:
quote:
Entire state of CA is shut down.
This too will spread to the rest of the country...just a matter of time.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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PaulCat
Player
Member # 513
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posted 03-20-2020 11:12 AM
I still think there's a bit of overreaction in the US. I don't think this is something where we need to shut down the country like we're doing. If people could just be smart there wouldn't be a need for that at all.
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-20-2020 11:31 AM
PC:
quote:
I still think there's a bit of overreaction in the US.
You may be right, but considering what we are up against....I'll take it! I'm a "better safe than sorry" person right now.
quote:
If people could just be smart there wouldn't be a need for that at all.
Therein lies the problem, my friend....people are stupid!
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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MEL
Player
Member # 141
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posted 03-20-2020 11:38 AM
Well MM I think you are only thinking about your state and its people when saying people are stupid !!! ![[Razz]](tongue.gif)
Just kidding … people are stupid, many people think rules and laws apply only to others. Way too many entitled people these days. Just read where a lot of the younger generation are complaining about we are taking their lives away by closing bars and so forth and not allowing groups to get together. Lord help us if they can't party together for a few weeks.
MEL
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Tiptree
Administrator
Member # 844
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posted 03-20-2020 12:30 PM
The approach all nations seem to be taking is incredibly short-sighted, for two reasons:
(1) The amount of debt we are going to acquire from the spectacular economic interventions being planned will cripple us. If you think we had a dangerously high amount of debt before, don't look at what is about to happen!
(2) By adopting the social isolation method of dealing with this, we are preventing most of us from ever developing antibodies. In general, most healthy people will either not get sick at all, or will get sick and recover with no lasting problems. But in either case, exposure triggers the development of antibodies, so we will no longer be susceptible to that virus. We are "immune". But now, almost nobody will develop antibodies, so when this virus re-emerges, we will face the same problem. Another round of shutting down the economy? We can only hope that we can fast-track an effective vaccine, else this will turn ugly really fast come fall.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
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handycat
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Member # 2323
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posted 03-20-2020 01:01 PM
Tip said (1) The amount of debt we are going to acquire from the spectacular economic interventions being planned will cripple us. If you think we had a dangerously high amount of debt before, don't look at what is about to happen
Exactly my concerns. I wish there was a means to distribute cash to those that are directly affected. It appears like we are going to print money and give it to everyone within a predetermined financial range. Not sure how that stimulates the economy as everyone is staying home and hoarding Everything. You can only buy so much TP. Yes, I know it is supposed to help those in need because of this pandemic but in reality we are just printing more money. Our children and grandchildren will pay for this dearly, at least IMO.
In another post I complimented President Trump about acting presidential. I’m watching his news briefing as I write this post. He has reverted to his old self. Because the news media is acting childish is no excuse for him to do likewise. Somebody needs to behave like an adult during this crisis!
[ 03-20-2020, 01:03 PM: Message edited by: handycat ]
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m hamilton
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Member # 127
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posted 03-20-2020 06:29 PM
I'm not sure the information they are getting out of China right now is truthful. I've seen several reports where they aren't even giving their own people truthful information on what is going on in their country!
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The potus is planning 1st major tax hike since '93 in next economic package!
I still can't believe some people believed that LIAR!!!
Your whole life is determined(by) 10% what happens to you, and 90% how you handle it!!!
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-21-2020 10:00 AM
hc:
quote:
In another post I complimented President Trump about acting presidential. I’m watching his news briefing as I write this post. He has reverted to his old self. Because the news media is acting childish is no excuse for him to do likewise. Somebody needs to behave like an adult during this crisis!
The only adult I've seen at these briefings is Dr. Fauci. He will tell it like it is....period.
[ 03-21-2020, 10:04 AM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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handycat
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Member # 2323
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posted 03-21-2020 11:58 AM
We have a friend who has attended a couple of seminars conducted by him. She spoke very highly of him before he became so well known. I’m also impressed by the lady doctor (can’t recall her name) who is quite prominent in these briefings as well as the surgeon general. For that matter I think Vice President Pence has handle himself well during this crisis.
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Old Norm
Administrator
Member # 1482
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posted 03-21-2020 12:30 PM
I think they are all handling the situation pretty well, with the exception of some of the news media. They cannot resist trying to catch the administration in a lie, and do everything they can to make them look bad.
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Pray For Our Country!
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MountainMafia
Player
Member # 2066
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posted 03-21-2020 12:42 PM
hc:
quote:
For that matter I think Vice President Pence has handle himself well during this crisis.
Pence is doing a great job!....let him do it Mr. President!
What I like about Fauci is that he doesn't seem to be intimidated by Trump...nada. He has openly, and on the same stage, contradicted him.
Dr. Fauci is not political, and has made it clear that he does not like being ask political questions...no hype, no promises, no guarantees...just sticks to the facts!
[ 03-21-2020, 12:44 PM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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ukcatfannfl
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Member # 1425
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posted 03-21-2020 01:59 PM
IMO one of the Presidents jobs is to give the people "hope"..He is doing that!!
[ 03-21-2020, 02:00 PM: Message edited by: ukcatfannfl ]
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ukcatfannfl
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handycat
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Member # 2323
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posted 03-21-2020 05:36 PM
We need to cut all of our Presidents a little slack. Corona isn’t President Trump’s fault. Ebola was’t President Obama’s fault. SAR’s wasn’t President Bush’s fault. Only a handful of cases of herpes was “proven” to be caused by President Clinton.
[ 03-21-2020, 05:43 PM: Message edited by: handycat ]
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-21-2020 10:02 PM
I ain’t lost hope, but after today when I think about the White House I think of the most secured location on the planet, guarded against virtually any intrusion imaginable, and COVID-19 walks right through door.
When the President & VP can’t be protected......... ![[Frown]](frown.gif)
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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MEL
Player
Member # 141
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posted 03-21-2020 10:15 PM
MM to be honest they aren't always in the WH.
MEL
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ukcatfannfl
Player
Member # 1425
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posted 03-21-2020 10:26 PM
Number one Observatory Circle VP residence
[ 03-21-2020, 10:30 PM: Message edited by: ukcatfannfl ]
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ukcatfannfl
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-21-2020 11:02 PM
MEL:
quote:
MM to be honest they aren't always in the WH.
OK?
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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MEL
Player
Member # 141
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posted 03-21-2020 11:33 PM
So they could be infected anywhere.
MEL
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-22-2020 09:16 AM
My point is if the WH ain't safe no place is.
This is one contagious SOB. The NIH is saying we could have as many as 70,000 confirmed cases in the US by the end of NEXT WEEK!.
We currently have about 24,000 confirmed cases....THREE times this by the end of the week...not good!
The dreaded "surge" is beginning...we'll soon find out where we actually stand in this fight.
[ 03-22-2020, 09:22 AM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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clydeh
Player
Member # 7
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posted 03-22-2020 09:49 AM
This is a side note about fear and contagious disease. When I was a little boy (1943 or 1944) a child that lived across the street from us (near Louisville) had polio. I can still remember that my parents were terrorized because at that time there was no treatment and the immunization had not yet been developed. Many children who had polio were often paralyzed and disabled for life.
Posts: 845 | From: Cullman, AL, USA | Registered: Aug 1999
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Tiptree
Administrator
Member # 844
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posted 03-22-2020 10:07 AM
clydeh,
Which town did you grow up in?
MM,
It is unclear how many cases we have, and whether they are anticipating a surge of testing will reveal more cases, or that the actual number of cases will reach 70,000 (confirmed or not).
Currently, the number of infections is doubling roughly every 2.5 days everywhere except Singapore and Japan; China and South Korea started off with that rate, but have seen it level off to nearly zero new cases recently.
My suspicion is that many, many more than 70,000 have been infected, but most are asymptomatic. Now that we are all hiding in our bunkers, the rate of spread should begin to rapidly decline. However, given the long incubation period, we will see more and more confirmed cases over the next month.
Hang on. This too shall pass.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
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MountainMafia
Player
Member # 2066
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posted 03-22-2020 11:21 AM
Tip:
quote:
My suspicion is that many, many more than 70,000 have been infected, but most are asymptomatic.
The estimates I've seen has the asymptomatic portion at less than 20%.
The surge I was referring to is the impact on our healthcare system where hospitals and workers become overwhelmed. We have virtually no surge capacity. We have a shortage of beds, ventilators, PPE, etc.
Italy has a better bed/patient ratio than we do, and they are now sending the elderly home to die.
I don't think we will reach that level, but.....we'll see.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
Posts: 4694 | From: Alabama | Registered: Aug 2003
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clydeh
Player
Member # 7
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posted 03-22-2020 12:01 PM
Tip,
We moved to Middletown just after that and that is where we lived (in different houses) until I got married. The place where the polio story took place was called the "eight mile house". I don't know what that meant but it was several miles out of Louisville on Highway 60 toward Middletown
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