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Author
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Topic: Coronavirus
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MEL
Player
Member # 141
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posted 03-14-2020 01:35 PM
Sorry HC ... just can't help myself. There is so much panic out there I gotta have some relief when I can.
HC I don't care what Cal says you be a pretty cool guy !!!
MEL
Posts: 2795 | From: Greeley, CO, USA | Registered: Sep 1999
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Old Norm
Administrator
Member # 1482
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posted 03-14-2020 01:42 PM
I worked our Knights of Columbus Lenten fish fry late yesterday afternoon. We had a meeting beforehand and decided to cancel the rest of the fish fries after that one. When we finished, I went to Walmart for a few things before going home. I was astounded! ALL the checkout lanes were open. That was a first for me. The shelves looked like a bunch of 5 year olds has wrecked them. I did manage to find most of what we wanted. Millie did want some pinto beans, but all that was on the shelves where they were normally displayed, was one, solitary package of black-eyed peas! I cannot stand them, so I left them for some other unfortunate soul.
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Pray For Our Country!
Posts: 36271 | From: Western KY | Registered: Aug 2001
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MEL
Player
Member # 141
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posted 03-14-2020 02:42 PM
Norm … way too much misinformation out there and people are panicking … sure there are serious problems but not to the degree some people are taking it IMHO (grabbing all the toilet paper and hand sanitizer you can get). I just read where 2 brothers went out and bought all the hand sanitizer they could get {over 20,000 bottles}for around $3-4 a bottle, they then went on Amazon and were selling them anywhere from $20 to $125 a bottle till Amazon stepped in and stopped that kind of price gouging. They are now stuck with over 17,000 bottles and I hope they have to drink them !!! It is a dangerous problem but some common sense will help people prevail. If you have health problems like respiratory, low immunities etc … by all means stay in as much as you feel you need to. But from what I heard from a surgeon I talked to if you are healthy and just take precautions you will be fine. One of the biggest problems he said is there are not enough respirators available if lots of people need them (but it shouldn't be a problem unless people are just not taking precautions pertaining to their health needs and problems). Just my 2 cents (well and the surgeon's I talked to).
Stay safe everyone and take care of yourselves according to your needs.
MEL
Posts: 2795 | From: Greeley, CO, USA | Registered: Sep 1999
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MountainMafia
Player
Member # 2066
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posted 03-14-2020 02:47 PM
We ain't seen nuth'n yet!
You guys are probably tired of hearing me say that. But, from the heart, I believe this virus can change our way of life for the foreseeable future if we don't get a handle on it. Like...NOW!
I'm not interested in some political, back-and-forth blame game. Right now, I don't give damn who's at fault, if anybody at all...get the patient to the hospital before he dies and then worry about who shot him.
We are so far behind on testing and surveillance it's staggering.
South Korea corralled the virus buy testing 15k people a day (China tested 100k per day)...we barely test 100 a week.
By some estimates over a million Americans are already infected...we just can't identify them until they become ill (or play for an NBA team) and, by that time, they have already infected who knows how many?
I know this link is worst case...but this is what could happen if we don't go after this thing with everything we got...it'll take it.
WORST CASE
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
Posts: 4694 | From: Alabama | Registered: Aug 2003
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Tiptree
Administrator
Member # 844
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posted 03-14-2020 04:11 PM
Hey, MM, that article assumes NO measures are taken to limit the spread of the virus. But strong measures ARE being taken. Travel limitations, event cancellations, "social distance", wide dissemination of protective habits... with more to come.
Aggressive testing is good, but the best way to prevent the spread is to do what Americans do best -- stay indoors, be antisocial, and hunker down on the computer. ![[Smile]](smile.gif)
I suggest that all here do the same.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
Posts: 13628 | From: Terre Haute, IN | Registered: Sep 2000
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-14-2020 04:56 PM
Tip:
quote:
Aggressive testing is good, but the best way to prevent the spread is to do what Americans do best -- stay indoors, be antisocial, and hunker down on the computer.
Hell, I been "social distancing" before I knew what it was...we used to call it minding your own business....So, that part won't bother me none.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
Posts: 4694 | From: Alabama | Registered: Aug 2003
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Tiptree
Administrator
Member # 844
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posted 03-14-2020 05:54 PM
Here is how the Italians deal with "social distance"... in the heart of a massive outbreak, they SING!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDRiINXik00&feature=youtu.be
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
Posts: 13628 | From: Terre Haute, IN | Registered: Sep 2000
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Old Norm
Administrator
Member # 1482
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posted 03-14-2020 06:02 PM
If I were to sing, I suspect that would drive everyone far away from me!
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Pray For Our Country!
Posts: 36271 | From: Western KY | Registered: Aug 2001
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Tiptree
Administrator
Member # 844
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posted 03-14-2020 07:33 PM
I am often asked to sing solo... so low that nobody can hear me.
And when I do sing, I prefer to sing tenor... ten or twelve miles away from the nearest human.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
Posts: 13628 | From: Terre Haute, IN | Registered: Sep 2000
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MountainMafia
Player
Member # 2066
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posted 03-14-2020 08:00 PM
You two better straighten up, hc has already warned Mel!
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
Posts: 4694 | From: Alabama | Registered: Aug 2003
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MEL
Player
Member # 141
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posted 03-15-2020 04:07 PM
Sorry HC but I am all in now …
Some people aren't shaking hands because of the Coronavirus. I am not shaking hands because everyone is out of toilet paper !!! lol
Damn this virus must be wrecking India like a m***** f***** … I haven't gotten a call about my extended warranty in a good minute !!! lol
MEL
Posts: 2795 | From: Greeley, CO, USA | Registered: Sep 1999
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MountainMafia
Player
Member # 2066
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posted 03-15-2020 04:17 PM
MEL:
quote:
Some people aren't shaking hands because of the Coronavirus. I am not shaking hands because everyone is out of toilet paper !!! lol
Love it! ![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
Posts: 4694 | From: Alabama | Registered: Aug 2003
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PaulCat
Player
Member # 513
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posted 03-15-2020 04:43 PM
I find it odd that if this virus started in China in December, and possibly as early as November, that it has taken this long to get to the US. I have a friend who had to go to the emergency room with flu-like symptoms back in January. Also in January, I got sick for a couple of days like I had never been before, and it came with a cough that took me weeks to get over. Is it possible that COVID-19 has been here for a while, and that's what me and my friend had? Who knows.
Posts: 10347 | From: Erlanger, Ky. USA | Registered: Mar 2000
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Trey Ball
Administrator
Member # 332
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posted 03-15-2020 06:14 PM
quote:
Originally posted by PaulCat:
I find it odd that if this virus started in China in December, and possibly as early as November, that it has taken this long to get to the US. I have a friend who had to go to the emergency room with flu-like symptoms back in January. Also in January, I got sick for a couple of days like I had never been before, and it came with a cough that took me weeks to get over. Is it possible that COVID-19 has been here for a while, and that's what me and my friend had? Who knows.
PC,
My wife and I have thought the same thing. She was had a strange sickness in late January and early February.
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Wife's Mad. Told me we never talk anymore. And just last nite while watching super bowl told her 2 or 3 times to get me a coke and popcorn. Also told her not to forget to take out trash in the morning. Ain't that something. Also told me I was too indecisive. Can't figure out what to do about that. One nice thing I guess. She called me a pro crastinator. Don't know what a crastinator is but I guess I'm a good one for her to call me a pro. Gonna wait til tomorrow to look that up though. I love her but somrtimes can't help but thinking I should have told uncle Junior to keep his coon hound pup and stevens double barrel and also his youngest daughter.
redbone
Posts: 11568 | From: IN, USA | Registered: Dec 1999
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Old Norm
Administrator
Member # 1482
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posted 03-15-2020 06:25 PM
One of my granddaughters was sick and had to miss work last month. She had pretty much all the symptoms. Her kids, 4 and 5 were sick as well, but not as severely as she was. Could be. Millie and I have self isolated. Didn't even go to Mass, which is a big no-no for Catholics. I went over before Mass and talked with the priest about it. He was fine with it. We'll probably skip two or three more Sundays, and then go back if things have settled down.
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Pray For Our Country!
Posts: 36271 | From: Western KY | Registered: Aug 2001
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Tiptree
Administrator
Member # 844
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posted 03-15-2020 08:59 PM
I am not generally prone to conspiracy theories, but the characteristics of this disease are those that make it a perfect bioweapon:
(1) The long incubation period allows those infected to spread the virus to the maximum number of others before symptoms show.
(2) Permanent lung damage (fibrosis) often occurs before symptons appear.
(3) It is more contagious than any flu or cold virus (which are from the same family of viruses) -- on average, a carrier infects over 3 people. Normal flu and cold viruses have an infection rate of 1.8 or less.
(4) The fact that it is a "novel" (new) virus also indicates something man-made. Most viruses are mutations from other strains; this one is brand new.
Methinks the Chinese have some 'splainin to do.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
Posts: 13628 | From: Terre Haute, IN | Registered: Sep 2000
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PaulCat
Player
Member # 513
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posted 03-15-2020 09:54 PM
Tip, I wouldn't doubt your theory, but i did see a television interview with some "scientist" guy who said this virus has no characteristics of a man-made virus.
Posts: 10347 | From: Erlanger, Ky. USA | Registered: Mar 2000
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MountainMafia
Player
Member # 2066
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posted 03-16-2020 06:48 AM
PC:
quote:
Is it possible that COVID-19 has been here for a while,
Not only possible, but likely.
Norm:
quote:
Millie and I have self isolated.
Good move, Norm...very dangerous times right now.
Tip:
quote:
Methinks the Chinese have some 'splainin to do.
Me wouldn't doubt it one bit.
PC:
quote:
i did see a television interview with some "scientist" guy who said this virus has no characteristics of a man-made virus.
Like Tip said, this thing is brand new...we just don't know yet.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
Posts: 4694 | From: Alabama | Registered: Aug 2003
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handycat
Player
Member # 2323
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posted 03-16-2020 07:55 AM
My daughter is an RN and she tells us we need to self isolate for the near future. Our grandchildren have volunteered to go to the store for us. We our both sick with what I’m reasonably sure is nothing more than the common cold. VA clinic called and canceled a routine visit. Routine dentist appointment has been postponed. Illinois has shut down bars and restaurants so my daily coffee routine is gone.
This thing is going to be a train wreck for the economy no matter what we as individuals do or what measures the government takes.
I’m bored. I may post more of my nonsense than normal. When you see “handycat” on here you may want to to keep scrolling. To do other wise may result in severe irritability. It’s going to be a long spring.
[ 03-16-2020, 08:15 AM: Message edited by: handycat ]
Posts: 5410 | From: decatur ill. | Registered: Feb 2005
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-16-2020 09:18 AM
hc:
quote:
This thing is going to be a train wreck for the economy no matter what we as individuals do or what measures the government takes.
Without consumers there is no economy. Ironically, by doing what we're supposed to do...stay home as much as possible...we are, at the same time, withdrawing from the economy.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
Posts: 4694 | From: Alabama | Registered: Aug 2003
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Tiptree
Administrator
Member # 844
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posted 03-16-2020 12:35 PM
There is still Amazon and Grubhub!
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
Posts: 13628 | From: Terre Haute, IN | Registered: Sep 2000
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-16-2020 01:11 PM
Delivery is the only way to go right now...no guarantees but a lot safer.
I don't even trust my mail!
[ 03-16-2020, 01:15 PM: Message edited by: MountainMafia ]
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
Posts: 4694 | From: Alabama | Registered: Aug 2003
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MEL
Player
Member # 141
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posted 03-16-2020 04:18 PM
Take it for what is worth (and who knows now days) but my daughter who works for a law firm in Phoenix says a lawyer in their firm knows someone that is in the know and said not to panic but be prepared for a nationwide shut down within 48 hours. I filled up with gas and have enough food for a month for myself already so I am good.
Good luck to everyone out there … even you Handy !!!
MEL
MEL
Posts: 2795 | From: Greeley, CO, USA | Registered: Sep 1999
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PaulCat
Player
Member # 513
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posted 03-16-2020 04:31 PM
Can't make money with the market at an all-time high. I'm sure there are many rich people who want the market to drop. As they say, buy low.
Posts: 10347 | From: Erlanger, Ky. USA | Registered: Mar 2000
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Tiptree
Administrator
Member # 844
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posted 03-16-2020 06:24 PM
Mel,
What do you mean by 'nationwide shut-down'? I need to get my daughter home from San Diego!
Paul,
All time high? Yikes! The market has been clobbered. I can kiss my dream of retiring in a few years goodbye.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
Posts: 13628 | From: Terre Haute, IN | Registered: Sep 2000
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PaulCat
Player
Member # 513
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posted 03-16-2020 06:47 PM
Tip, i'm talking about where the market was before this meltdown. I'm sure the market will eventually bounce back. I've got seven years before I have to worry about it. What sucks is that back in December I had an email all typed up to my financial guy to move my IRA out of the market and "on the shelf". I decided to wait for my 401K to start with my new job before sending it. Turns out I waited too long. The email is still in my draft folder. ![[Frown]](frown.gif)
[ 03-16-2020, 06:47 PM: Message edited by: PaulCat ]
Posts: 10347 | From: Erlanger, Ky. USA | Registered: Mar 2000
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-16-2020 07:20 PM
Tip,
I don't know about a nationwide shut down "within 48 hours", but I think it will happen soon.
Dr. Fauci, the dude in charge and in the know, says he is open to a 14-day nationwide shutdown.
Stricter and stricter travel and crowd bans are being declared every day all over the country...at this pace a nationwide shutdown is inevitable.
It's going to get much worse before it gets better.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
Posts: 4694 | From: Alabama | Registered: Aug 2003
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MEL
Player
Member # 141
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posted 03-16-2020 07:24 PM
Tip I am just repeating what the lawyer told my daughter. If there is a shut down then most business will shut down expect essential ones like pharmacies, grocery stores, gas stations … etc. And maybe even some of those. I would think airlines would be one of the first to shut down since they are germ tubes already (but that is just a guess).
MEL
Posts: 2795 | From: Greeley, CO, USA | Registered: Sep 1999
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Tiptree
Administrator
Member # 844
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posted 03-16-2020 08:59 PM
If that happens, the economic fallout will be catastrophic. Bankruptcies will abound, even among large, solid companies.
The stock market has never plummeted this far, this fast, EVER. Not 1929, not 1987, not 2008. But the market is forward-looking, and is pricing in the probability of economic disaster looming on the horizon.
I could see airlines going bust, hotel chains going under, resorts and casinos suffering, even the mighty Disney will be hit hard (park attendance will be almost zero, and ESPN has no sports to broadcast).
One bright spot: Amazon is hiring 100,000 delivery and warehouse positions, and has given a temporary raise of $2 per hour to those jobs. They are encouraging those who are out of work because of all the bans and closures to apply. They are struggling to keep up with a massive surge in orders because everybody is sequestered.
[ 03-16-2020, 08:59 PM: Message edited by: Tiptree ]
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
Posts: 13628 | From: Terre Haute, IN | Registered: Sep 2000
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-16-2020 10:18 PM
Tip:
quote:
I could see airlines going bust,
Trump said today he was going to bail out the airlines because it "wasn't their fault".
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
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Tiptree
Administrator
Member # 844
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posted 03-16-2020 10:48 PM
Yeah, but where do you stop? For example, restaurants by the tens of thousands will close. We can't print enough money to cover the businesses that will suffer from this.
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
Posts: 13628 | From: Terre Haute, IN | Registered: Sep 2000
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m hamilton
Player
Member # 127
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posted 03-17-2020 04:39 AM
IF we go into a full blown SHUTDOWN, ol' Mark will be sequestered at his work. There is already a process in the works of forcing people to stay to make sure the lights stay on!
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The potus is planning 1st major tax hike since '93 in next economic package!
I still can't believe some people believed that LIAR!!!
Your whole life is determined(by) 10% what happens to you, and 90% how you handle it!!!
Posts: 123991 | From: vevay, IN USA | Registered: Sep 1999
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handycat
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Member # 2323
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posted 03-17-2020 06:50 AM
quote:
Yeah, but where do you stop? For example, restaurants by the tens of thousands will close. We can't print enough money to cover the businesses that will suffer from this.
My thoughts as well. I think we should personally do everything to help small businesses such as drive up’s curb serviced etc. Generally speaking i’m against government bail outs.
On a side note, I watched the President’s news conference yesterday. I was encouraged. Not about the pandemic but his demeanor. He acted somewhat presidential and refrained from some of his usual antics. If he used the term fake news, I missed it. This is a time when we need leadership not politics. Now if we can just get the liberal side to follow suit.
Posts: 5410 | From: decatur ill. | Registered: Feb 2005
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blue hoot
Player
Member # 398
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posted 03-17-2020 11:34 AM
I'm going to try to give you all some positive calculations on the coronavirus outbreak.
China population
1,408,526,449. Yes 1.4 billion
80,881 cases and 3,226 deaths
Here's the shocker in percentage of China population.
Cases: 0.00574 % (.1%)
Deaths: 0.00022 % (-.1%
That's point 1% not 1%.
Still serious but overhyped by the media. Also, figured out the U.S. and it's way lower than China and I also tripled our cases and still way low. Less than .1%. Kentucky has 22 cases and it would take 500 cases to reach 1% of Kentucky population. I love math because math don't lie.
Posts: 1497 | From: Wimauma, FL | Registered: Feb 2000
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-17-2020 12:17 PM
Tip:
quote:
Yeah, but where do you stop? For example, restaurants by the tens of thousands will close. We can't print enough money to cover the businesses that will suffer from this.
We could stop with the airlines. They realized $Billions from the new tax law, and used 96% of their free-flow cash for stock buy backs.
Greed has consequences, and oftentimes it's not good.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
Posts: 4694 | From: Alabama | Registered: Aug 2003
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MountainMafia
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Member # 2066
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posted 03-17-2020 02:06 PM
hc:
quote:
On a side note, I watched the President’s news conference yesterday. I was encouraged. Not about the pandemic but his demeanor. He acted somewhat presidential and refrained from some of his usual antics. If he used the term fake news, I missed it. This is a time when we need leadership not politics.
I agree...more POTUS...less Trump. This is what this country needs right now...good for Trump...and the country.
quote:
Now if we can just get the liberal side to follow suit.
I'll see what I can do, hc.
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"It's amazing what you can accomplish when nobody cares who gets the credit"....Tubby Smith after winning 1998 National Title.
Posts: 4694 | From: Alabama | Registered: Aug 2003
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Tiptree
Administrator
Member # 844
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posted 03-17-2020 04:18 PM
quote:
They realized $Billions from the new tax law, and used 96% of their free-flow cash for stock buy backs.
Not sure of what your source is for this figure, but this is easy to look up.
For Delta, their tax rate had hovered around 34-36% each year since 2015 (the earliest data I can quickly find) through 2017. Starting in 2018, that dropped to about 23%.
Delta's Free Cash Flow (defined as Cash from Operations minus Depreciation and Amortization, a rough proxy of how much it costs to simply continue business each year) has ranged fom $2.8B to $6.1B in a lumpy, up-and-down fashion (i.e., not just getting steadily larger over the years). In fact, the first year that the tax rate was cut, Delta's free cash flow was the lowest in five years ($2.8B). The next year it rose to a rather average $4.7B. In other words, while the tax cut did lower tax payments, it did not have any material effect on Delta's Free Cash Flow.
BTW, the Free Cash Flow is calculated AFTER accounting for payouts for dividends and stock buy-backs. Even so, Delta has spent the following percentage of Free Cash Flow on buy-backs:
2015: 36%
2016: 49%
2017: 60%
2018: 32% (AFTER the tax decrease)
2019: 34%
So, they paid a SMALLER percentage of FCF once the taxes were reduced. They have spent between $1.6B to $2.6B each year retiring stock.
Looking at Southwest, one of the best companies in the business, the results are similar. Stock buy-backs as a percentage of Free Cash Flow have been between 50% and 59%.
Keep in mind that Free Cash Flow is what is left over after the company has paid its bills and spent enough to keep operations going. This is the money that the management has to either invest in the company (buy more planes, develop new routes, etc.), hoard as cash, pay out as dividends, or buy back shares. Airlines are not a growth industry, so investing in new planes is not an effective use of cash. So, it comes down to either hoarding cash, paying more dividends, or buying back shares. Why do you get bothered that they bought back shares?
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Tiptree
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” Thomas Jefferson
Posts: 13628 | From: Terre Haute, IN | Registered: Sep 2000
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handycat
Player
Member # 2323
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posted 03-17-2020 08:37 PM
Remember last week when we thought it would be a bad week because of the time change, Friday the thirteenth and a full moon? We didn’t have a clue.
Stolen from Facebook but I thought how true and had to share here.
Posts: 5410 | From: decatur ill. | Registered: Feb 2005
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MEL
Player
Member # 141
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posted 03-17-2020 09:01 PM
Handy I guess we will have to turn you in for being a self confessed thief !!! Have to put you on notice ...
MEL
Posts: 2795 | From: Greeley, CO, USA | Registered: Sep 1999
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handycat
Player
Member # 2323
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posted 03-18-2020 06:13 AM
Mel, I am an honest thief if nothing else. More than most of our politicians can say.
Posts: 5410 | From: decatur ill. | Registered: Feb 2005
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