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Author
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Topic: What does UK'S road to the NCAA Tournament look like?
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catmandoo
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Member # 1284
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posted 01-20-2021 04:12 PM
Suffering back-to-back losses to Alabama and Auburn, along with the team’s atrocious 1-6 start to the season, the Kentucky Wildcats now sit at 4-8 on the year and 3-2 in conference play. With just 13 games left in the regular season – barring the rescheduling of UK’s postponed game vs. South Carolina – along with the SEC Tournament set to begin March 10, the opportunities to right the ship are few and far between.
Still, Kentucky head coach John Calipari is optimistic about his team turning things around and earning a bid in the NCAA Tournament.
“We still have our chances. You can go on a run and we’ll be fine,” Calipari said. “… We just have to figure out what’s next and how we get this thing on offense to another (level).”
Calipari added that things will “click” at some point, and he’s going to keep tweaking things until it happens.
“I’ll never stop tweaking and trying and try to figure something out that clicks in their minds,” he said. “… At some point it’s going to click. We’re one of those teams that’s trying to figure it out–you can’t just ride one or two guys. And I’ll be honest with you, it may be game to game… OK, then it’s game to game, who’s getting more looks, who’s making more shots.”
How does Kentucky get to that point, and more importantly, where will those wins come from?
Let’s take a look at the remaining schedule and find UK’s path to the NCAA Tournament.
Schedule
at Georgia (8-4 overall, 1-4 in the SEC)
vs. LSU (10-3 overall, 5-2 in the SEC)
at No. 18 Alabama (12-3 overall, 7-0 in the SEC)
vs. No. 5 Texas (11-2 overall, 5-1 in the Big 12)
at No. 19 Missouri (9-2 overall, 3-2 in the SEC)
vs. No. 6 Tennessee (10-2 overall, 4-2 in the SEC)
vs. Arkansas (10-4 overall, 2-4 in the SEC)
vs. Auburn (8-6 overall, 2-4 in the SEC)
at Vanderbilt (4-6 overall, 0-4 in the SEC)
at No. 6 Tennessee (10-2 overall, 4-2 in the SEC)
vs. Texas A&M (7-5 overall, 2-4 in the SEC)
vs. Florida (7-4 overall, 4-3 in the SEC)
at Ole Miss (7-6 overall, 2-4 in the SEC)
vs. South Carolina* (3-4 overall, 1-2 in the SEC)
SEC Tournament (March 10-14)
*Potentially rescheduled from Dec. 29
Must-wins
at Georgia
vs. LSU
at No. 19 Missouri
vs. Arkansas
vs. Auburn
at Vanderbilt
vs. Texas A&M
vs. Florida
at Ole Miss
vs. South Carolina* (potentially rescheduled from Dec. 29)
For Kentucky to even have a chance at earning an at-large bid this year, it starts with winning all the games they should. UK is well past the point of slip-up games, the team had its fair share of those already against Richmond, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, and Auburn, while the Kansas and Louisville games were also there for the taking.
Missouri is one of the best teams in the SEC and is certainly the most difficult opponent in the must-win category, while LSU is a fringe top-25 team in its own right, but the timing of both makes those two games absolutely critical. Tucked in a stretch of four consecutive games against ranked foes and five straight against teams with no more than three losses, you have no choice but to pull off wins over both sets of Tigers.
You can only take a few more losses on the year to have a chance, and you can’t waste them on games in this category. Nine more wins gets you to 13 on the year and guarantees you finish at or above .500 overall in the regular season.
Should South Carolina return to the schedule, that would obviously fall in the must-win category, as well, potentially pushing UK to as many as 14 wins out of 27 games.
It’s not pretty, but it’s a start.
Toss-ups
at No. 18 Alabama
vs. No. 6 Tennessee
As we saw in last week’s 20-point blowout at Rupp Arena, Alabama is a matchup nightmare for Kentucky. And following the team’s 105-75 victory over LSU Tuesday evening, it’s clear the Crimson Tide may not just be among the best in the SEC, but all of college basketball.
Still, though, a team that lives and dies by the three the way Alabama does can result in some cold shooting nights and random losses – they’ve shot 24.1%, 13.6%, and 26.9% from three in the team’s three losses to Stanford, Clemson and WKU, respectively – giving UK an outside shot at catching the Tide at a bad time.
As for Tennessee, the Volunteers just got smacked at Florida in Gainesville, the same team and location Kentucky beat the Gators by 18 points earlier this month. They just proved Tuesday evening they have their flaws.
If you can split these games, you’ve still got a puncher’s chance at an at-large bid. Win both, and taking losses in the next category becomes a bit easier to handle.
Expected losses
vs. No. 5 Texas
at No. 6 Tennessee
Texas has only lost two games on the year by a combined six points, with both coming against ranked foes. And despite the head-scratching loss at Florida this week, Tennessee still only has two losses on the year and are ranked in the top 10 for a reason, and Calipari has certainly had his fair share of struggles in Knoxville since arriving at Kentucky.
Difficult games no matter which way you spin it. Win one or both, and momentum obviously shifts back in Kentucky’s favor the remainder of the season.
Winning either of these games also allows a bit of flexibility in the must-win games, which may be necessary considering the team’s tendency to revert this season.
Analysis
Looking back at the 2019 NCAA Tournament – the last example we have considering postseason play was canceled in 2020 – 15 teams earned at-large bids with ten losses or more, with Baylor (19-13), Oklahoma (19-13), Syracuse (20-13), Seton Hall (20-13), Minnesota (21-13), Ohio State (19-14), and Florida (19-15), all earning at-large bids with at least 13 losses.
While the total number of games is obviously different this season, the winning percentages are certainly something you can keep a close eye on. Florida’s .558 winning percentage earned the Gators a 10-seed back in 2019, while Ohio State’s .575 winning percentage earned the Buckeyes an 11-seed. Alabama (2018) and Vanderbilt (2017) are the only other teams to earn at-large bids with a .558 winning percentage (19-15) since 2010, the lowest in that span.
For Kentucky to get back to the bare minimum winning percentage among recent at-large bids, they’d have to finish the regular season 15-11 (.577), which can only be done if South Carolina is added back to the schedule and UK pulls off a win in the toss-up or expected loss category. From there, the team would need to either win the SEC Tournament – which would give the team an automatic bid regardless – or win at least one game in the conference tournament, which would give the Wildcats a minimum .571 winning percentage.
Should UK fall short of that 15-win minimum to close out the regular season, it appears the team’s only hope in making the NCAA Tournament is by winning the SEC Tournament (or racking up multiple wins in Nashville, at the very least). And that is to simply scrape by, still leaving it up to chance with the selection committee.
Needless to say, Kentucky needs to start winning games, and they need to do so immediately. The team’s road matchup this evening at Georgia is a fine place to start.
Link
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http://www.ukfightsong.com/
Posts: 186359 | From: st. augustine florida 32092 | Registered: Mar 2001
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Bama Cat
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Member # 153
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posted 01-20-2021 04:56 PM
This info above is a lot of dreaming. I don't think it can happen. We'll be lucky if we can get close to half of these in the win column. Cal will have pulled a miracle if we win 2/3 of these games.
Posts: 14132 | From: berea, ky, usa | Registered: Sep 1999
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m hamilton
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Member # 127
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posted 01-20-2021 06:56 PM
It looks like a dirt path in the middle of the Appalachian mountain train! Not very promising!
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The potus is planning 1st major tax hike since '93 in next economic package!
I still can't believe some people believed that LIAR!!!
Your whole life is determined(by) 10% what happens to you, and 90% how you handle it!!!
Posts: 123969 | From: vevay, IN USA | Registered: Sep 1999
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Trey Ball
Administrator
Member # 332
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posted 01-20-2021 09:22 PM
Their path....Win the SEC Tourney.....i.e.......no path exists!
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Wife's Mad. Told me we never talk anymore. And just last nite while watching super bowl told her 2 or 3 times to get me a coke and popcorn. Also told her not to forget to take out trash in the morning. Ain't that something. Also told me I was too indecisive. Can't figure out what to do about that. One nice thing I guess. She called me a pro crastinator. Don't know what a crastinator is but I guess I'm a good one for her to call me a pro. Gonna wait til tomorrow to look that up though. I love her but somrtimes can't help but thinking I should have told uncle Junior to keep his coon hound pup and stevens double barrel and also his youngest daughter.
redbone
Posts: 11553 | From: IN, USA | Registered: Dec 1999
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ukman
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Member # 3032
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posted 01-20-2021 09:33 PM
There's no chance this team makes the tourney. The only way would be to win the SEC tourney and this team cannot beat Alabama, or Tennessee. This is not the type of team that can put a 3 or 4 day run together. Can't shoot, can't dribble, can't pass. Defense is okay I guess,but not good enough to compensate for the turnovers and awful shooting. I just want this season to be over. It's too painful to watch, but I can't seem to keep myself from watching. I keep hoping, and they keep proving who they are: an young team, with low college level talent, and a poorly coached team. That's who we are this year, and it sucks. And Cal is responsible for where we are. Quit blaming everything else like their mental state, not enough time, etc. I know those matter some, but it's not enough to explain this big of a fail. He needs to accept responsibility, but I know he won't do that unless it makes him look better.
Posts: 5425 | From: georgia | Registered: Jan 2009
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Bama Cat
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Member # 153
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posted 01-20-2021 09:58 PM
Yeah, it looks like we found a new way to lose tonight with 3 and a half seconds to go. We snatched defeat right out of the jaws of victory. As was said above, and I'll abbreviate it..... WE DON'T GOT NO TEAM.
We have 10 kids that are never going to be REAL one and dones. What we have is a bunch of DONES. This is not a UK caliber team. Cal thought he had the #1 recruited group of freshmen but I guess not.
As I said before, Askew should be a senior in high school and his turnovers showed it tonight. I hope Cal is learning a lesson about talking these kids into leaving school early just to say he has a #1 recruiting class. If this carries over into next season he could well decide he's had enough.
The NCAA chances are all gone now and if Cal wants to play in that level 3 tourney they might make that, but I wouldn't hold my breath. And the NIT is gone also. I'm not going to listen or comment on whether or not we will make the tourney. It'll be one or maybe two and out at the SEC Tourney.
Come on Lady Cats!
Posts: 14132 | From: berea, ky, usa | Registered: Sep 1999
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