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Author Topic: Sagarin, KenPom Predictions For Kentucky’s Next Five Games
catmandoo
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Member # 1284

posted 12-05-2019 11:06 AM      Profile for catmandoo   Email catmandoo   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
Saturday, December 7, 4 PM, Rupp Arena, SEC Network

AP Poll: NR
Coaches Poll: NR
Sagarin Rating: 298
KenPom: 264
The Knights are 2-5 this season, their only wins coming over FDU-Fordham (101-52) and Quinnipiac (78-77). The only Power 5 opponent they’ve played is Notre Dame and they lost 91-66. According to the Sagarin and KenPom ratings, they are the second worst team Kentucky will play this season behind Eastern Kentucky. Both rating systems predict a big win.

Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky 88.85, Fairleigh Dickinson 64.6

KenPom: Kentucky 80, Fairleigh Dickinson 56 (99% win probability)

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Saturday, December 14, 5 PM, Rupp Arena, ESPN

AP Poll: NR
Coaches Poll: NR
Sagarin Rating: 74
KenPom: 72
The Yellow Jackets are 3-2 this season, both losses coming to SEC teams. They lost at Georgia 82-78 on Nov. 20 and vs. Arkansas at home 62-61 in overtime on Nov. 25. Their “best win” was at NC State in overtime 82-81 to start the season.

Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky 88.85, Georgia Tech 80.18

KenPom: Kentucky 72, Georgia Tech 60 (86% win probability)

Utah Utes
Wednesday, December 18, 11 PM, T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, ESPN2

AP Poll: NR
Coaches Poll: NR
Sagarin Rating: 95
KenPom: 121
Utah is 5-2 on the season, their losses coming to Coastal Carolina (ouch) and Tulane. Their best wins are at Nevada to start the season vs. Minnesota on Nov. 15.

Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky 85.73, Utah 79.45

KenPom: Kentucky 78, Utah 64 (89% win probability)

Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, December 21, 5:15 PM, T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, CBS

AP Poll: 6
Coaches Poll: 6
Sagarin Rating: 4
KenPom: 4
The Buckeyes are 7-0, with wins over No. 10 Villanova, Cincinnati, and five crappy teams. They’re now No. 6 in the country in both polls and face No. 7 North Carolina tonight in Chapel Hill (9:30 PM, ESPN). On a neutral court, both Sagarin and KenPom have the Cats taking an L to the Buckeyes (even more reason to come to #BBNVEGAS!).

Sagarin Predictor: Ohio State 91.02, Kentucky 85.73

KenPom: Ohio State 65, Kentucky 63 (45% win probability)

Louisville Cardinals
Saturday, December 28, 3:45 PM, Rupp Arena, CBS

AP Poll: 1
Coaches Poll: 1
Sagarin Rating: 3
KenPom: 1
As we are all well aware, the 8-0 Louisville Cardinals are the No. 1 team in the country, their most impressive win coming against No. 4 Michigan at home last night. Blah Blah Blah. Rupp better be loud.

Sagarin Predictor: Louisville 89.52, Kentucky 88.85

KenPom: Kentucky 67, Louisville 66 (51% win probability)


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Posts: 161025 | From: st. augustine florida 32092 | Registered: Mar 2001  |  IP: Logged
CatFanInYankeeville
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posted 12-05-2019 11:16 AM      Profile for CatFanInYankeeville     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Ohio State looked really good last night vs. UNC. As much as I dislike them, that game makes me pretty nervous, especially when we have Louisville right around the corner after it.

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“Any man who thinks he can be happy and prosperous by letting the Government take care of him; better take a closer look at the American Indian!” Henry Ford

Posts: 5496 | From: Eddyville at heart, Chicago in life | Registered: Mar 2003  |  IP: Logged
Tiptree
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posted 12-05-2019 12:52 PM      Profile for Tiptree   Email Tiptree   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
As the team is now in Camp Cal mode, assimilating Dontae Allen, adjusting to the loss of Sestina, and healing other injuries, my expectations are for steady improvement more than victories. Sure, I would love to show up and kill everybody, but let's be honest -- we are not yet ready for prime time.

Hats off to Cal for scheduling such a murderer's row of games. Nothing teaches humility more than hard-fought losses. It will be vital that the coaches keep the players' heads screwed on straight should we lose one or more of these games badly.

By the end of this month we should figure out our identity and players know and accept their roles. By the end of January, we should be fundamentally sound on offense and defense. By the end of March, we should be heading to a solid tournament finish.

I predict we will fall into the 15-20 range in national rankings by mid-January, then start our steady ascent to the top five by season's end.

[ 12-05-2019, 12:53 PM: Message edited by: Tiptree ]

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Tiptree

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catmandoo
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posted 12-06-2019 10:51 AM      Profile for catmandoo   Email catmandoo   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Past games like this never worried me that much but this season Ohio State and Louisville do!

[ 12-07-2019, 03:58 PM: Message edited by: catmandoo ]

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Posts: 161025 | From: st. augustine florida 32092 | Registered: Mar 2001  |  IP: Logged
EnterpriseCat
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posted 12-07-2019 08:12 PM      Profile for EnterpriseCat     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
It looks like OSU is better than UofL to me. I think we have a better chance of beating the dirty birds than the Buckeyes. Honestly, if we split those two I think that would be considered a success right now. Our defense and 3 point shooting is not real good yet. Hopefully, both will be ready come March. Go Big Blue!

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Romans 8:38-39

JD4U

Posts: 1976 | From: Enterprise, AL | Registered: Oct 2007  |  IP: Logged
catmandoo
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posted 12-08-2019 12:46 PM      Profile for catmandoo   Email catmandoo   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
EC, couldn't agree more...

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Posts: 161025 | From: st. augustine florida 32092 | Registered: Mar 2001  |  IP: Logged


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