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Author Topic: Cats 3 point and defense
SCWC
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Member # 2464

posted 12-12-2018 04:23 AM      Profile for SCWC     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
From KSR:

With another crop of five-star talent, a trio of players with Sweet 16 experience returning for a sophomore season, and two-time All-PAC-12 transfer Reid Travis joining the fold, most college basketball analysts penciled in the Kentucky Wildcats as a Final Four contender from the jump.

The hype took another leap during the team’s trip to the Bahamas, when the Wildcats dominated against professional basketball teams with four consecutive victories in eight days.

After months of giddiness surrounding the fanbase this offseason, the Kentucky basketball team has (for the most part) been a massive letdown given the overall expectations going into the year. They’ve started the year 7-2, with one loss being an absolute beatdown to Duke and the other being a head-scratcher against a “meh” 6-3 Seton Hall squad. The victories haven’t been exactly “pretty” either.

So what gives? Why is a team many assumed was the nation’s deepest and talented top-to-bottom underachieving the way they are?

Let’s break down the numbers and compare them to some of the nation’s top contenders to find out why.

You can use the latest AP Top 25 as a reference:

Kansas
Duke
Tennessee
Gonzaga
Michigan
Virginia
Nevada
Auburn
Michigan
Florida State
Texas Tech
North Carolina
Virginia Tech
Buffalo
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Villanova
Mississippi State
Kentucky
Arizona State
Marquette
Iowa
Furman
Houston
Syracuse/Indiana/Kansas State
To kick things off, Kentucky comes in No. 40 in the nation in field goal percentage at 48.8 percent, with an adjusted FG% of 53.7 percent. They actually rank No. 4 in the nation with 1.47 points per shot, with Gonzaga being the only top-25 team ranked ahead of the Wildcats.

The total buckets are also coming, as Kentucky averages 84.2 points per game, good for No. 24 in the nation. Gonzaga, Duke, North Carolina, Buffalo, and Nevada, however, all score over 85 points per game, with the first three on that list averaging 93 points per game or more.

The overall efficiency is there, which is a solid sign for the future potential success of this team.

When you look at overall pace, however, the discrepancies start to show why the on-court product hasn’t been so appealing.

Kentucky takes just 57 shots a game with 514 attempts overall, good for just No. 243 in the nation. It’s a number that needs to improve, but doesn’t tell the whole story, as Kansas, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Arizona State, Kansas State, and Louisville all sit behind Kentucky in total field goal attempts.

That being said, Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Buffalo, Auburn, Tennessee, and Kansas all make over 30 baskets a game, good for top-25 in the nation for each, while Kentucky comes in tied at No. 96 in the nation with just 27.9 makes per contest. Kentucky is on-par with the elite schools in overall FG%, but trailing significantly in overall pace and shot output.

Take a look at a school like Indiana, for example. They’re No. 157 overall with 560 attempts, but they’re the No. 25 team in the nation with an 8-2 record. Why? They come in as the fifth-best shooting team in the nation at 51.4 percent on the year and defend relatively well as the No. 45 team in scoring defense, allowing just 64.7 PPG. That’s ahead of teams such as Tennessee, Villanova, and Duke.

From there, Kentucky comes in at No. 64 in total two-point field goals with 201 and No. 81 in two-point FG% with 54.8 percent on the year. Not great, but manageable. Like the other statistics, there’s obvious work to be done, but not many significant outliers and doesn’t completely explain the struggles.

And then you find the key culprit, and it’s certainly not a surprise…

Out of 353 college basketball teams, Kentucky sits at No. 322 in the nation with just 5.6 three-point makes per game, tied with Western Kentucky, Maryland Eastern-Shore, SIU-Edwardsville, and Eastern Michigan. With just 50 total makes, they sit tied with WKU at No. 319 overall.

Meanwhile, Auburn, Villanova, Buffalo, Gonzaga, and Louisville are all making 8.7 threes per game or more.

In three-point percentage, they creep a little higher to No. 197 overall with a mark of 34 percent from deep on the year. They’re actually ahead of Duke, West Virginia, Arizona, Washington, and Texas, all schools that are either first or tied for first in their conference.

It’s not that they’re a horrendous shooting team, they’re just not taking them at the rate they need to.

In overall three-point attempts per game, the Wildcats sit at No. 338 with just 16 per, tied with the likes of UC Santa-Barbara, Jacksonville State, Chicago State, and the fighting Tubby Smiths of High Point University.

Auburn, Villanova, Buffalo, Mississippi State, Furman, Marquette, Duke, Gonzaga, Nevada, Iowa Michigan, and Tennessee all shoot 21 threes or more per game. Oh, and so does Louisville.

While the modern sport of college basketball is moving toward a run-and-gun style of play with a heavy emphasis on deep shots, Kentucky isn’t falling in line, even with supposed shot makers on the team.

And it’s not necessarily something Calipari wants to shy away from. He said so himself.

“This is the best three-point shooting team I’ve had since I’ve been here,” Kentucky head coach John Calipari said after his team’s victory over Monmouth in November. “We need to take between 18 and 24 threes.”

But for whatever reason, they’re just not there right now.

Beyond shooting, the other offensive numbers are pretty horrendous, as well.

With just 14.1 assists per game (No. 152 in the nation) and a .93 assist-to-turnover ratio (No. 235 in the nation), ball movement and decision making has been extremely poor. There are no teams ranked ahead of Kentucky with fewer assists per game, while Tennessee, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Buffalo, Duke, and Auburn all average more than 17 assists per contest. The Wildcats also average 15.2 turnovers per game, good for No. 283 in the nation. Arizona State is the only team with a worse margin among ranked teams.

Switch things over to the other end of the floor, and it’s not much better.

In scoring defense, Kentucky is allowing 71.3 points per game, tied for No. 176 in the nation with Lipscomb. The No. 1 team in the nation, Kansas, sits right behind at No. 178 with an allowed 71.4 PPG, while North Carolina (No. 229) allows 73.7 PPG. Washington State, Iowa, and Gonzaga are the only other ranked teams with worse scoring defenses.

Kentucky is also No. 143 in allowed FG% with 42.6, with only Iowa (No. 224) being the only ranked team with a higher rate allowed at 44.3 percent. Meanwhile, schools such as Duke, Tennessee, Michigan, and Auburn are allowing less than 39 FG% per contest, each ranked in the top-35 nationally.

Shot numbers are down, they’re relying on long twos instead of open looks from three, ball movement and decision making has been poor, and they’re not defending. Not a recipe for success, if you ask me.

Numbers don’t lie.

[ 12-12-2018, 08:02 AM: Message edited by: SCWC ]

Posts: 17777 | From: Myrtle Beach, SC | Registered: Jun 2005  |  IP: Logged
ProBlue
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Member # 2944

posted 12-12-2018 08:38 AM      Profile for ProBlue   Email ProBlue   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Good post SCWC . Very interesting. Hope we can turn it around.

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ProBlue

Posts: 737 | From: Bristol,Tn. | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
Bama Cat
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Member # 153

posted 12-12-2018 09:27 AM      Profile for Bama Cat   Email Bama Cat   Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
So...... not getting their shots quick enough, not taking the open shot when it is there and missing the three must be keeping us from scoring close to 100 pt per game. Vice versa...... we are allowing too many threes. poor defense. will we learn before March????
Posts: 14119 | From: berea, ky, usa | Registered: Sep 1999  |  IP: Logged


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